Statistics Aside, Patriots Should Succeed in Conquering Josh McDaniels, Broncos

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Oct 11, 2009

Statistics Aside, Patriots Should Succeed in Conquering Josh McDaniels, Broncos FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — It’s not one of the greatest rivalries in the NFL, but the New England Patriots (3-1, 1-1 AFC East) and Denver Broncos (4-0, 1-0 AFC West) definitely have a competitive history with one another.

Outside of AFC East opponents — including the Indianapolis Colts, who were in the division through 2001 — the Patriots have played the Broncos more than any other team in the NFL. Denver leads the all-time series, 26-16, including a 2-0 mark in the playoffs (the Broncos are the only team in the NFL with two postseason victories against the Patriots). The Patriots are 1-3 at Invesco Field, including one playoff loss.

The Patriots defeated the Broncos last season, 41-7.

When and Where

Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, 4:15 p.m. (CBS)
Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver, Colo.

Records

Patriots 3-1 (1-1 AFC East)
Broncos 4-0 (1-0 AFC West)

Skinny

Randy Moss developed a reputation years ago that still haunts him to this day. Even after he had his best game of the season — 10 receptions for 116 yards while fighting through a painful back injury in a Week 3 victory against the Atlanta Falcons — one reporter called him out for dogging his routes and block attempts.

A lazy claim and ridiculous report, of course, and Denver Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey said anyone who thinks Moss is taking plays off doesn’t know football.

“He never lollygags,” Bailey said. “See, that’s the thing, people don’t really understand the game. I mean, he blocks. He does all those little things. I wouldn’t say he’s the greatest blocker, but he does it effectively. When he’s jogging, he’s just really setting you up for the next time he jogs, and then he takes off running past you. He’s one of those guys. He loves to find ways to set you up.”

Moss and Bailey have been two of the best at their positions over the last decade, and Sunday’s matchup will a great one to watch.

“He’s one of the best I’ve ever seen, even to this day,” Bailey said of Moss. “He’s in his 12th season, but that guy, he plays like he’s 25 years old again, and he’s so dangerous. He has that deceptive speed. You know he’s fast, but then he doesn’t run fast, and then all of a sudden he’s top speed. He’s just a dangerous guy. I look forward to that matchup because if you can come out playing well against him, you know you’re doing good things.”

Projected Starters

Patriots
Offense:
Quarterback: Tom Brady
Wide Receiver: Randy Moss
Wide Receiver: Wes Welker
Running Back: Sammy Morris
Tight End: Ben Watson
Tight End: Chris Baker
Left Tackle: Matt Light
Left Guard: Logan Mankins
Center: Dan Koppen
Right Guard: Stephen Neal
Right Tackle: Nick Kaczur

Defense:
Left Defensive End: Ty Warren
Defensive Tackle: Vince Wilfork
Defensive Tackle: Mike Wright
Right Defensive End: Jarvis Green
Left Outside Linebacker: Pierre Woods
Middle Linebacker: Gary Guyton
Right Outside Linebacker: Adalius Thomas
Left Cornerback: Shawn Springs
Right Cornerback: Leigh Bodden
Strong Safety: Brandon Meriweather
Free Safety: James Sanders

Specialists:
Kicker: Stephen Gostkowski
Punter: Chris Hanson
Long Snapper: Jake Ingram
Kick Returner: Laurence Maroney
Punt Returner: Wes Welker

Broncos
Offense:
Quarterback: Kyle Orton
Wide Receiver: Brandon Marshall
Wide Receiver: Eddie Royal
Running Back: Knowshon Moreno
Fullback: Peyton Hillis
Tight End: Daniel Graham
Left Tackle: Ryan Clady
Left Guard: Ben Hamilton
Center: Casey Wiegmann
Right Guard: Chris Kuper
Right Tackle: Ryan Harris

Defense:
Left Defensive End: Ryan McBean
Defensive Tackle: Ronald Fields
Right Defensive End: Kenny Peterson
Left Outside Linebacker: Mario Haggan
Left Inside Linebacker: Andra Davis
Right Inside Linebacker: D.J. Williams
Right Outside Linebacker: Elvis Dumervil
Left Cornerback: Champ Bailey
Right Cornerback: Andre’ Goodman
Strong Safety: Renaldo Hill
Free Safety: Brian Dawkins

Specialists:
Kicker: Matt Prater
Punter: Brett Kern
Long Snapper: Lonie Paxton
Kick Returner: Eddie Royal
Punt Returner: Eddie Royal

Stat Sheet

Patriots
The Patriots are the second team in NFL history to play four consecutive undefeated teams (statistically, the season opener doesn’t count). The 1986 Philadelphia Eagles are the other.

The Patriots are averaging 35:41 in time of possession per game.

In Bill Belichick’s only two victories at Denver (Oct. 1, 2000, and Nov. 3, 2003), the Patriots took intentional safeties in the second half as a strategic route to victory.

Running back Sammy Morris had a career-high 138 rushing yards in the Patriots’ victory against Denver last season.

Quarterback Tom Brady has completed 115 of 203 passes for 1,302 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions in five career games against the Broncos.

Wide receiver Randy Moss has 35 receptions for 512 yards and three touchdowns in seven career games against the Broncos. He had five catches for 69 yards and two scores last season against Denver.

The Patriots have won 18 consecutive games when they’ve won the opening coin toss.

The Patriots have won 53 consecutive games when they’ve won the turnover battle.

Stephen Gostkowski has successfully kicked 11 consecutive field goals, which is tied for the second-longest streak of his career. His longest is 17. Adam Vinatieri converted a Patriots-record 25 straight field goals from 1996-97.

Broncos
The Broncos are an NFL-best 16-4 against the Patriots since Pat Bowlen bought the team in 1984.

The Patriots scored an NFL-best 1,384 points when Denver head coach Josh McDaniels was their offensive coordinator from 2006-08.

The Broncos are the only team in the league with a winning record against Brady (4-1).

Quarterback Kyle Orton has a 17-2 record (.895 winning percentage) at home in his career as a starting quarterback, which is the best winning percentage of all quarterbacks with at least 15 starts since 1970.

Orton is the only starting quarterback in the NFL without an interception this season.

Since 2007, Brandon Marshall ranks second among NFL wide receivers with 1,068 yards after the catch.

The Broncos have surrendered 26 points this season, which is tied for the fifth-fewest points allowed through four games since 1970.

Denver’s defense leads the league in yards per play (4.0), touchdowns allowed (two) and fewest 10-yard plays (33).

Outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil is tied for the league lead with eight sacks.

The Broncos have a plus-seven turnover differential, which is tied for first in the NFL.

The Broncos have seven former Patriots on their roster: wide receiver Jabar Gaffney, tackle Brandon Gorin, tight end Daniel Graham, running back LaMont Jordan, long snapper Lonie Paxton, offensive lineman Russ Hochstein and defensive lineman Le Kevin Smith.

Black and Blue

Patriots
(From Thursday’s practice report)

Running back Fred Taylor (ankle) underwent ankle surgery on Thursday and could be out for the season.
Linebacker Adalius Thomas (not injury related) did not practice.
Right tackle Nick Kaczur (ankle) had limited participation.
Middle linebacker Jerod Mayo (right knee) had limited participation.
Safety James Sanders (shoulder) had limited participation.
Cornerback Shawn Springs (knee) had limited participation.
Wide receiver Wes Welker (knee) had limited participation.
Defensive tackle Vince Wilfork (ankle) had limited participation.
Quarterback Tom Brady (right shoulder) fully participated.

Broncos
(From Thursday’s injury report)

Running back Correll Buckhalter (ankle) did not practice.
Safety Brian Dawkins (knee/shoulder) did not practice.
Inside linebacker/fullback Spencer Larsen (shoulder) did not practice.
Guard Ben Hamilton (hamstring) had limited participation.
Cornerback Alphonso Smith (ankle) had limited participation.

This Date in Patriots History

In 1963, the Boston Patriots played their first game at Fenway Park and beat the Oakland Raiders 20-14. The Patriots rallied from a 14-3 third-quarter deficit to improve their record to 3-3. Babe Parilli threw two touchdown passes, Gino Cappelletti kicked two field goals and the Patriots’ defense forced five turnovers.

Overheard

“I go hug the ref before the game, ask about his kids and stuff like that. I’m trying to get him on our side.”
–Quarterback Tom Brady, when asked about getting the officials to call roughing-the-passer penalties

Press Box

Patriots
Laurence Maroney
will use the fans' boos at motivation.

Wes Welker was driving fantasy football managers wild.

Tom Brady loves the newest “Tom Brady Rule.”

Broncos
Nick Saban
said he couldn’t hire Josh McDaniels fast enough.

With snow in Sunday’s forecast, McDaniels gets his team ready with tougher practices.

Brandon Marshall is trying to clean up his act.

NFL
History lesson: three old timers who belong in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

The Jets did well in acquiring Braylon Edwards.

Chad Ochocinco has more in store for this weekend’s game against the Ravens.

Outlook

The Patriots’ offense needs to maintain its balance against the Broncos, who will thrive if Tom Brady stands in the pocket and chucks it all day. Denver has a serious secondary with cornerbacks Champ Bailey, Andre’ Goodman and Alphonso Smith, along with safeties Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill. They’re strong in coverage, and the Broncos have intercepted six passes this season. Plus, they’ve got playmaking linebackers who can charge the quarterback, such as Elvis Dumervil, D.J. Williams and Andra Davis.

Conversely, Dawkins has helped the Broncos’ rush defense, which is holding opponents to 3.2 yards per rush, the sixth-best mark in the league. Dawkins, who has become the leader of the defense along with Bailey and Williams, is third on the Broncos with 27 total tackles (20 solo).

Denver has limited opponents to 6.5 points per game while forcing 10 turnovers, so the statistics can be daunting. However, the Broncos have played some extremely suspect offenses in Cincinnati, Oakland, Cleveland and Dallas — all of which are inconsistent and prone to turnovers. With that, it’s safe to assume the Broncos are overachieving as a defensive unit, and there’s no question they’re about to face their biggest test in the Patriots. There probably won’t be many big plays available for the Patriots, so ball control will be especially vital in this game.

New England’s defense can contain the Broncos so long as it can stop wide receiver Brandon Marshall from becoming a dominant force. Because the Patriots are so good at containing an opponent’s biggest offensive threat, it’s likely they’re targeting Marshall this week. Marshall had six receptions for 77 yards against the Patriots in 2008.

Knowshon Moreno has been the Broncos’ primary running back with 249 yards, 4.2 yards per carry and one touchdown, but Denver utilizes Correll Buckhalter as a change of pace, like the New York Jets use Leon Washington. Buckhalter is averaging 7.2 yards per carry and 12.0 yards per reception this season.

Quarterback Kyle Orton hasn’t thrown any interceptions this season, but he isn’t completing many passes to his own team, either. He’s only hitting on 59.0 percent of his attempts, so it’s up to the Patriots to force long-yardage situations.

On paper, the Broncos are a scary team, but their wins must be put in context. While Denver isn’t a tremendously easy place to play and the Patriots have certainly had their difficulties against the Broncos throughout the years, New England is the superior team in this matchup and should win handily with proper execution.

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