After beating the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots (9-5, 4-2 AFC East) extended their division lead to two games over the Miami Dolphins (7-7, 4-2) and New York Jets (7-7, 2-4), who both lost Sunday. With two weeks remaining in the regular season, it's a two-team race between the Pats and Dolphins.
The Jets, who choked away a fourth-quarter lead in the closing minutes Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, can no longer win the AFC East title. Meanwhile, Miami erased an 18-point deficit against the Tennessee Titans but lost when Rob Bironas kicked a field goal in overtime. The Dolphins' defeat happened minutes after the Patriots' victory, so some of New England's players weren't aware of the result.
"Oh, they did lose?" Patriots linebacker Tully Banta-Cain said in his postgame news conference when informed of the Dolphins outcome. "OK, that's great. That's awesome. That helps us out, and we could use all the help we can get. That makes this win even that much bigger, so I'm glad we got it."
The Patriots won the AFC East title every year from 2003-07 but lost it to the Dolphins last season due to a tiebreaker. New England will win the division crown with either a win or tie in either of their two final games against the Jacksonville Jaguars or Houston Texans. The Pats can also take the title if the Dolphins suffer one loss or tie against the Texans or Pittsburgh Steelers.
If the Patriots and Dolphins finish tied at 9-7, the Dolphins would win the division due to the fourth tiebreaker. They split their two meetings this season, which is the first tiebreaker, and they've also got identical division records. And, if they each finish 9-7, they would have identical records against common opponents (7-5). That leads to the conference record tiebreaker, and the Dolphins would hold the edge with a 7-5 mark to the Patriots' 6-6 record.
If the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets all finish 9-7, the Dolphins would win that tiebreaker, as well. The first tiebreaking procedure in a three-team tie calls for head-to-head record between the clubs involved. The Dolphins are 3-1 against the Patriots and Jets, the Patriots are 2-2 against the Dolphins and Jets, and the Jets are 1-3 against the Patriots and Dolphins.
And finally, if the Patriots and Jets finish 9-7, the Patriots would win that tiebreaker due to their superior division record. Therefore, the Jets have been completely eliminated from the AFC East title chase.
Naturally, the Patriots can be thankful that the Dolphins and Jets both lost Sunday, but if the Patriots didn't win their first road game of the season, the scenarios would still be much more complicated.
"To win the game and to come into the locker room and watch Tennessee kick that field goal, that was great," Patriots quarterback Tom Brady told reporters in his news conference. "It's not too often this team has had to go into December to get a road win, but we did [Sunday]. I didn't think it was our best performance out there, but we won the game and that's what's most important."
The Patriots' victory might have appeared imperfect, but the standings are objective. While the Indianapolis Colts (14-0) have locked up home-field advantage in the AFC, the second seed is still up for grabs. The Patriots need to win their last two games and would need a great deal of help to earn the first-round bye.
If the Patriots alone finish tied with the San Diego Chargers, who are 11-3 and would need to lose their final two games to the Tennessee Titans and Washington Redskins, the Patriots would win the tiebreaker by virtue of their records against common opponents (Baltimore, Miami, Denver and Tennessee). However, if the Patriots, Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) all finish 11-5, the tiebreaker would be based on strength of victory, which is impossible to project at this point.
The most likely scenario is that the Patriots win the AFC East and end up with the third or fourth seed. They would host a playoff game and, with a victory, would head to Indianapolis or San Diego for the AFC divisional round. Since it looks almost certain the Patriots would have to win on the road if they have Super Bowl aspirations, they can use Sunday's victory in Buffalo as a reference point — one they've been in search of for three and a half months.
"The fact that we've been struggling on the road, [Sunday's win in Buffalo] does give us a boost," Banta-Cain said. "It does get that monkey off our back for the season because we've had a hard time getting these types of wins. This is something I'm sure we'll build off of, and it's not our last road game. Hopefully, we can build off of this for the next time."
