This, according to a computer. The statistical modeling system PECOTA, devised by Nate Silver and maintained now by Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus, uses a collection of data on players' past performances and the career paths of similar players to predict the future. The numbers aren't perfect by any stretch, but they're as good an estimate as you can get without playing the actual games.
The numbers themselves seem modest. The Red Sox are projected to have the best record in baseball at 94-68, and we'll sooner see pigs fly over Fenway in the eighth inning during "Sweet Caroline" than see 94 wins lead the major leagues. But that's not the point — PECOTA doesn't aim to predict the freak statistical outliers that make each season special. The system merely determines on paper who has the best chance for success.
You need luck to win 100 games in any given baseball season. It's a fact of life. You need fluky seasons from average players, you need your pitching staff to hold up over the course of a long season, and you need the injury bug to keep its distance. Storybook seasons like the 2009 Yankees happen, but they're not predictable. PECOTA focuses on the things we can see coming.
As for the Red Sox, what can we see coming? If you're watching the team every day and enduring the ups and downs of the long season, you're sure to formulate your own opinions. But here's what the computer sees.
PECOTA projects the career paths of players by looking at similar players and their numbers over time. Take David Ortiz, for example — what can we learn from looking at other players like him, power-hitting DH types who declined a bit toward their early- to mid-thirties? Cecil Fielder hit 17 home runs at age 34; Mo Vaughn hit 26. Maybe the correct answer for Big Papi lies somewhere in the middle. Given what we know about his career path to date, it certainly makes sense.
Looking at past numbers can tell us a lot. Jon Lester is 26 — can he strike out 238 batters like another power lefty, Johan Santana, did at that age? Will J.D. Drew drive in 118 runs at age 34, like David Justice did? Will Victor Martinez slug 23 doubles like Carlton Fisk did after he turned 31?
The answer to all of these questions is, "No one knows for sure, but it certainly seems reasonable." That's how these things work. The computers give you a good estimate, and the players on the field determine what really happens.
The other thing PECOTA takes into consideration is measurements of luck and lack thereof. A hitter is lucky if a high percentage of his balls hit in play turn into hits — home runs and strikeouts are driven by skill, whereas groundouts and flyouts are much less predictable. Likewise, a pitcher with a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) should consider himself unlucky.
Kevin Youkilis had a BABIP of .359 last year. David Ortiz was at .262. Most of this is due to random chance, and it should even out over time. If Youkilis' numbers drop off a little this season while Papi's rise, don't be so surprised. On the pitching staff, Daisuke Matsuzaka saw a little bit of misfortune last year, while fate smiled on Josh Beckett. Look for a correction this season.
The projections don't account for everything. They can't predict who gets hurt and when; they can't predict who has an intangible effect on a ballclub; they can't predict (at least, not very well) which rookies can become big impact players right away. Systems like PECOTA tell you a lot about the future, but they're far from perfect.
Educated guessing is the name of the game. It's not about definitive answers — it's about saying whose chances look good and whose don't on paper.
For the Red Sox, it's a very good sign that the number-crunchers favor them this season. And they've got good reason — the 2010 Red Sox are blessed with a deep pitching staff, a rebuffed defense and a stacked lineup that should get the job done.
The Yankees are the defending champions, but the Red Sox have exactly what it takes to dethrone them. You can look it up.
