Tampa Bay Rays Rotation Is Young, Talented and a Secret Achilles Heel

by

Aug 8, 2010

Tampa Bay Rays Rotation Is Young, Talented and a Secret Achilles Heel Sometimes, you read a box score and think it's a joke.

Eight bombs — was this game played in MVP Baseball 2002 on a Playstation 2?

But "Big Game" James Shields really did follow up his dominant performance against the Yankees with that amazing stink-bomb against Toronto, combining with the rest of the staff to allow the most home runs in the majors since 2007.

I guess it wasn't a big game.

The Tampa Bay Rays have had a tough past few games. Two offensively potent clubs, Minnesota and Toronto, have given them fits. Maybe, they were due to cool off after their post All-Star break rampage, but it's also possible that something bigger is manifesting itself.

The consensus about the Rays/Yankees debate is that Tampa has the advantages in team speed, defense and in the starting rotation, while the Yankees have the bats and Mariano Rivera.

Calling Tampa's rotation — David Price, Shields, Matt Garza, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann — the best in baseball hasn't been an uncommon notion this season, but as good as they've been, they have to make their fans just a little nervous.

The Rays have the second-best rotation ERA in the AL (3.82) behind only Oakland (who benefits from an easier schedule), but they also rank second in another category. The Rays starters have given up 98 home runs, second-most in the majors.

That's a tough combination to pull off.

Sure, some of that number can be attributed to having 54 games against Boston, New York, and Toronto, all of whom crush the ball, but some of it is definitely on Tampa.

Among the Rays' pitchers, all but Price give up a home run on over 10 percent of fly balls. That would be OK if they didn't give many up, but only three rotations have lower ground ball-fly ball ratios than Tampa.

James Shields gives up line drives on 21 percent of balls in play, home runs on six percent of balls, and has a .333 BABIP against — that's bad.

Another bizarre statistic: in terms of value above replacement, the Rays' rotation actually ranks ninth worst. That metric, though, is based on fielding-independent pitching (FIP), a figure that discounts team defense and BABIP.

The Rays have some bigger problems than their sabermetric profiles though. Sometimes they get shelled. Shields, Garza, Davis, and even Price all have multiple outings with 9-plus ERAs. Niemann, secretly their most consistent pitcher, has had zero.

But, Niemann and Davis left the team Sunday to be examined for injuries. Their shoulders are sore. The Rays' rotation has thrown the second-most innings in the league, 106 more than the Pirates' starters have, so this can't be all that surprising.

Perhaps most important is simply how all of this applies to a postseason run. When seasons come down to just a handful of games, throwing up stinkers can be really costly, and the Rays do it a ton.

Playoff games also have a way of being low-scoring, decided by a clutch home run.

If the Rays are giving up so many bombs now, it's hard to believe that they won't be victimized by them in October, no matter how good they are.

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