Celtics Mailbag: Danny Ainge, C’s Face Franchise-Defining Crossroads With Rajon Rondo, Veteran Big Three

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May 13, 2011

Celtics Mailbag: Danny Ainge, C's Face Franchise-Defining Crossroads With Rajon Rondo, Veteran Big Three The Celtics' run of Eastern Conference dominance had to end sometime, and it appears as if that time is now. The C's fell to the Miami Heat in five games, and with that loss comes a ton of speculation about what's next for these Celtics.

With the Heat advancing and the Celtics heading home, the questions are flooding in. Where does the quest for the 18th banner go now? Do the C's focus their efforts on 2012 or begin to look further down the road?

Thanks to everyone who submitted questions.

That's it. The run for Banner 18 is over. Is this the end of an era in Boston? What's next for the Celtics? Who will they keep and who will they let go?
–Marcel Lima

I know this is a painful time, Marcel, but I'd urge you to wait a little bit before declaring this era totally over. I think right now, the attitude in Boston is reminiscent of the pre-2004 Red Sox era — it's "wait till next year."

Doc Rivers said immediately after Game 5 in Miami on Wednesday night that he wants to come back. The Celtics' veteran Big Three are all still under contract for at least another year, so for right now, I'd say nothing's being blown up. The Celtics still have the best four-man nucleus you can ask for.

There are no questions about the big names but there are questions about the supporting pieces. Is Shaquille O'Neal done? Is Jermaine O'Neal still alive? Will Jeff Green and Glen Davis stay?

My guess is that Shaq is done, J.O. still has a tiny bit left, Green becomes the sixth man next year and Baby goes elsewhere to pursue a starting job outside of Kevin Garnett's massive shadow. But those are only guesses and there's still a long wait before hearing any definite answers.

Update: Doc Rivers has reportedly agreed to a five-year contract.

Where does Game 3 against the Heat rank in your favorite games of the Big Three era?
–Spencer

In terms of overall memorability? Not in the top two, that's for sure. The Celtics' Game 5 win over the Lakers in the Finals last year was incredible, with Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant dueling in the second half and the C's coming out on top in the end. Then there's Game 6 in 2008, when the Celtics finally won it all. That has to top the list.

However, in terms of the basketball itself, it's hard to find a single game better than Game 3 against the Heat this year. There was Rajon Rondo going down and coming back one-armed in the fourth quarter. Garnett was dominating Chris Bosh and earning comparisons to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Pierce was quietly doing a number on LeBron James and dropping 27 on him. A close game became a blowout in the second half thanks to the inspired Celtics effort down the stretch.

It was a fantastic game and the most exciting win of the Celtics' season without a doubt. Sadly, it will be an afterthought a year from now, as fans will ultimately remember this year as the season the C's came up short and Miami began its rise to power.

Why do you think Glen Davis played so poorly in the playoffs?
–Wesley

If I could answer that question, I wouldn't be here. Psychiatry pays way more than sports writing, you know.

Part of his decline was that Davis ran into two teams in a row with very solid, underrated defenders up front. The Knicks' Ronny Turiaf and the Heat's Joel Anthony are quite good at everything but scoring, and those guys shut Big Baby down.

Another reason could be psychological.

There was a lot weighing on the guy this postseason. He was likely feeling pressured about playing a bigger role with Kendrick Perkins gone and the O'Neals banged up. He could have been thinking about his upcoming free agency. Perhaps he wasn't focused on the biggest task: playing hard.

It's a shame, too, because having Big Baby at his best really would have helped the Celtics put together a better postseason run.

What was the real reason the Celtics traded Kendrick Perkins? It was kind of out of the blue, and they didn't get enough in return. I assume they wanted to "win now," but they've fallen short, and I believe it was because they didn't have Perk.
–Tom Chase

I hate to break it to you, Tom, but there's no "real reason." There's a combination of a lot of smaller reasons, and they all added up to one very painful and controversial trade.

One reason was health. Perk had injured both ACLs within the past year. Another was money — the Celtics weren't able to keep him around past this summer. Another was fit — they had redundancy at center with two O'Neals, whereas they needed depth at the forward position with Marquis Daniels injured. All of these small factors added up, and they equaled a close call on a tough deal. Danny Ainge wasn't thrilled to pull that trigger. 

I don't think the Celtics fell short in this postseason because of Perkins' absence. I think they fell short because LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are two unbelievably good basketball players, and they just happened to overwhelm the banged-up Celtics in a best-of-seven series. Perk's presence might have made a small difference, but not the difference between a five-game exit from the second round and a championship.

What is Danny Ainge saying about the revamped roster now? Most of the new guys didn't play in the postseason: Nenad Krstic, Troy Murphy, Sasha Pavlovic and Carlos Arroyo. Jeff Green was inconsistent and even Glen Davis was flat-lining.
–DavetheWave

I don't think Danny is saying much. The bottom line — and this is something Danny and Doc both knew all along — is that it's all about the starters. The Celtics were going as far in this postseason as Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen were taking them. In the playoffs, you live and die with your best players playing heavy minutes. That was the plan from Day 1, midseason shakeup or not.

Krstic had a very solid couple of weeks when he first arrived in Boston, then he fizzled. He was never great, but it was never the plan for him to carry them in the playoffs anyway. Murphy, Pavlovic and Arroyo were basically injury insurance.

As for Green, we'll see. I still maintain there's hope for the kid — he's still only 24 and he's still working on settling into a new role. He's a good small forward who can make mid-range shots and defend wing guys. He might need a full season in Boston to grow into the role, and he might turn out better than fans think.

Do you think it's time to give up on the Big Three after these playoffs? Should the Celtics try to trade Paul Pierce or Ray Allen while they still have value?
–John

Definitely not now and probably not ever. Those guys are the heart and soul of the franchise right now, and they're likely the reason Doc Rivers wants to come back next year and make another run at winning it all.

Additionally, I'd argue this: They don't have as much value on the open market as they do in Boston. Pierce thrives because he's been a Celtic for 13 years and he knows his role here. Allen is fantastic as a second option behind Pierce. Those guys fit together, and if you trade them, you're breaking up a nucleus that's worked incredibly well together for four years.

Then again, this is all the same stuff we were saying a year ago about Kendrick Perkins. So I guess you never know. Sorry for the non-answer.

I don't think Rajon Rondo is a cornerstone to build around. What do you think of an offseason trade including Rondo, Glen Davis and a draft pick for Chris Paul or Dwight Howard? It makes them contenders next year and gives them a superstar to build with.
–Beau Ferndale

"Cornerstone to build around" is a relative term, Beau. Sure, no one's arguing that Chris Paul and Dwight Howard are fantastic players. If Dell Demps and Otis Smith called Danny up tomorrow and offered them to the Celtics, Danny wouldn't think twice.

But it's extremely difficult to get one of those guys, and for the Celtics — a team that wants to win it all in 2012 — you can't count on them. Rondo might not be the perfect cornerstone, but he's a very good player and the Celtics should roll the dice with him for at least one more year.

The Celtics are contenders right now to win in 2012. After that, all bets are off.

Dwight Howard and Chris Paul aren't necessarily answers to the problem. They're just big names. I would rather see someone young that can ease the transition between the Big Three and the future. Maybe someone like a Josh Smith or Al Horford from Atlanta, or maybe someone like a Monta Ellis.
–iceman7

Easier said than done. It would be hard to pry away any of the three guys you just named. All of them are All-Star caliber players.

Al Horford signed a five-year extension to his rookie contract in Atlanta last November. He's due $60 million from the Hawks between now and 2016. He's not going anywhere. Likewise with Josh Smith, who's in the middle of a five-year, $58 million contract. Monta Ellis is in the middle of making $66 million over six years from Golden State.

I know you don't want to hear this, but if you want the Celtics to add another piece this summer, you really should think smaller. They already have four All-Stars. It's not really feasible, either financially or basketball-wise, to bring in a fifth.

The Celtics' greatest need is another big man, and they would love to add one without breaking the bank. Three names I've thrown out there are Jason Collins, Kris Humphries and Jared Jeffries, all of whom become free agents this summer. If you think the C's are prying a star player away from a contending team like the Hawks, I think you're aiming a little too high.

What's the likelihood Danny Ainge is replaced? His midseason breakup of the Celtics' nucleus was almost as impactful a move as Red Auerbach's incredible trade of Joe Barry Carroll and a draft pick for Kevin McHale and Robert Parish!
–Jay

Red Auerbach's draft-night trade in 1980 was one of the greatest trades in NBA history. I mean, who's even heard of Joe Barry Carroll? Enough said.

That said, I have to vehemently disagree with your point that the Perkins trade had a similar impact. You're talking about adding two of the best players on one of the best teams of all time, in the 1980s Celtics. This is a veteran team on the decline trading its fifth-best player. Not even in the same ballpark.

While the Perk trade was a very questionable one and will continue to be debated for months — heck, maybe even years — I don't think it will define Danny Ainge's career. And I don't think it'll lead to his unemployment, either. Danny brought a championship to Boston in 2008, and that earned him a little job security.

Now, he's faced with the challenge of winning this thing again. It won't be easy.

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