Would you consider Carlos Beltran as a good fit for the Red Sox in that he would be a good short-term option and then still give Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish a starting opportunity in 2012 or 2013?
— Brett
Carlos Beltran questions dominated this week after he hinted while addressing reporters in Arizona that he would be willing to accept a trade to come to Boston. Thanks to each of you for submitting. Brett's was one of the first, so we'll try to address most of the matter here.
There is no doubt that Beltran's bat (.285, 13 home runs, .880 OPS) would be a welcome upgrade in right field, a position that has lacked production all year for the Red Sox. It's somewhat of a long shot that the club will make any move in that direction, for a variety of reasons.
For one, Boston has hope that its internal options will produce more in the second half. Whether that's a platoon of J.D. Drew and Darnell McDonald or some sort of rotation that still includes the red-hot Josh Reddick remains to be seen. The organization will mix and match as best it can, perhaps adding a McDonald type to complement the ranks.
Also, we're talking about a team that has the best offense in baseball. It's somewhat astounding that so many people are so up in arms about one of the only negatives. As it is, the lack of production in right field hasn't necessarily hurt the team. Also, Drew continues to be one of the better defenders at the position. That cannot be dismissed out of hand just because his offense has vanished.
Finally, Beltran is not going to come cheap. The Mets will want a quality prospect or two and Boston would be saddled with what's left on his $18.5 million contract. The indication is that the organization will not be shelling out all that much in terms of increased payroll at the deadline.
Tony, do you think the Red Sox will make a move at the trade deadline? If so what do you think they will do and how will it impact the lineup?
— Kyle Spencer
If no major splashes come in right field, and we don't think they will, the Red Sox are likely looking at adding another arm or two. With concerns over their top three starting pitchers (Josh Beckett's knee, Jon Lester's lat strain, Clay Buchholz's back), the club has to at least consider a legit starter. Recent reports linked the club to former Tampa Bay Ray and current Chicago Cub Matt Garza.
If all three starters return from their respective injuries just fine, or even if they don't, there could still be some additions in the bullpen. The relief corps has been fantastic of late, but we all know how quickly things can change out there with just one injury. It cannot hurt to have another quality arm, possibly a lefty.
So much of this depends on the status of those three starters. A right-handed bat off the bench remains likely, especially if Jed Lowrie remains far from returning.
Why did MLB do away with the bullpen cars?
— Mossman
Concern for the environment.
I was just wondering, how much does the Home Run Derby take out of players? Does it really ruin their swings?
— Paul
No, this is a myth perpetuated each and every year by people itching to find some way to offer concrete analysis of a relatively meaningful event, aside from its entertainment value. Annually, we hear about Bobby Abreu's post-derby "collapse" in 2005 as the primary cause for concern.
While there are examples of some guys suffering a drop in home run power, many other numbers improve. Also, what the critics (or those with nothing else to do) fail to include in their assessments is that the derby often includes players that are not necessarily home run hitters but were in the event because of particularly powerful first halves. They hit a handful of home runs early, got invited to the derby and then saw a drop in their home run numbers in the second half, but really they were just normalizing.
Think of Garrett Anderson, who hit 22 home runs in the first half in 2003, won the derby and then hit seven after the break. He reached 30 homers just once in his career, so the 22 first-half dingers were somewhat of an aberration. The rest of Anderson's numbers stayed the same after the derby, or rather they were more on par with the rest of his career.
If that's not enough, consider Abreu. He has had 14 full seasons in the majors. He has hit more than 20 home runs just four times. Nice hitter with some pop, but not exactly Babe Ruth, and a fine candidate to have a second half that sees him hit six homers, as was the case in 2005. Abreu hit .396 with 11 home runs in May of that year. It was a phenomenal run that allowed him to gain entry in the derby. Unless he was going to lap the field in every category, Abreu had to come down to Earth. He did, before hitting .320 with a solid four homers in August. Not exactly a collapse.
The derby curse is overblown and those who support it are rather selective in their arguments. Just looking at past champions, one finds plenty of reason to refute the claim that the derby is a bad thing for hitters.
Tony what will it take, if anything, for Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard to switch jobs?
— Dan
That's not happening, and I'm not sure why anyone would even want it to. As mentioned many times before in these pages, Terry Francona loves to use Daniel Bard in what he figures to be the most important point of the game. He has Bard put out the fire in the sixth or seventh innings, and often brings him back out to bridge the game to Papelbon, who has saved 20 of 21 chances this year.
Bard may be the closer of the future, but the Boston bullpen is thriving right now. Absolutely no need to make a change.
Hey Tony, I was wondering, will Josh Reddick stay with the Red Sox that much longer or will we see J.D. Drew stay in right field for the rest of the season? Will we see Ryan Kalish make his way up to the big club perhaps? By the way, I like that you were on camera talking to the Red Sox players after a game recently. You seem comfortable on camera because you seem like a nice, friendly, local guy.
–John
Thanks for watching NESN, John. We appreciate it, and you're right, I am a nice, friendly guy. You can also add muscular and intelligent to that, if you want. No pressure.
As for Reddick, that's the million dollar question right now. There's no denying he has done enough to earn a spot in the everyday lineup, but we won't know that for sure until Carl Crawford returns and we see a corresponding roster move. It would seem rather crazy to bid adieu to one of your best hitters of late, but the team has to consider all its options.
Crawford returns July 18 in Baltimore. Pay attention to the moves made in conjunction with that and you might get some idea as to how right field will look going forward.
Kalish remains sidelined with neck issues, but is getting close to a return for Pawtucket.
Tony, another writer last week basically said, "Whatever the Red Sox say about the length of an injury, add two weeks." He couldn't be more right after watching Bobby Jenks, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and now Clay Buchholz miss more time than advertised. I would like to know the reason. Is it deception on the Red Sox' part or does their medical staff not know what it's doing?
–Mike Ragoza
You will recall the issues with Jacoby Ellsbury last year. It seemed that he and the medical staff were not always on the same page, and because of it he may have returned too soon. That may play a part in the team being as careful as it can in dealing with injuries this year. The club is doing all it can to ensure that players are at or as close to 100 percent as they can be when they return. That's what is happening with Buchholz and Crawford right now, and could occur if Beckett needs any more time to rest his left knee.
There may be some smokescreens sent up from time to time, but it seems to be more of a case of the team taking every precaution with its players. Later in the season you may see some guys press through some physical issues.
What do you think is the percentage of likelihood that Andre Ethier comes to Boston at the trade deadline?
–Harry Wilson
Because he makes half of what Beltran makes, Ethier would come cheaper in terms of dollars. But because he is cheaper and because he is under team control through 2012, he would cost the Red Sox some quality prospects. It's possible, but not very likely.
Wouldn't acquiring Hunter Pence be something good for now and in the future? It would give us a strong outfield for years to come and help our lefty-heavy lineup. Your thoughts?
–Earl
Again, Pence is cheaper still in terms of dollars, but he has two more seasons under team control and is essentially the face of the Houston franchise right now. Astros executives have indicated that Pence is not going anywhere. If he did, you can be sure that some premium minor league talents are going the other way. It would take a lot to land Pence. Not so sure Boston is willing to take that on right now.
Come back Thursday for Part 2 of the mega mailbag.
