When the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder met up in the 2012 NBA Finals, they seemed destined to make the matchup a yearly event.
Both teams boasted multiple superstars, young-ish, talented cores and savvy front offices capable of making the right roster moves. Miami held up its end of the bargain, reaching four straight Finals from 2011 through 2014 and winning championships in 2012 and 2013.
The Thunder have gone in a very different direction. Injuries to their two best players, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, in addition to a few poor trades — highlighted by giving away one of the league’s top 10 players in James Harden for almost nothing in return — have seen OKC go from the next potential dynasty to a franchise hoping to avoid disaster next summer.
The Thunder and Heat meet Thursday night in Miami in what could be the last matchup, at least for a while, where both teams are contenders.
Oklahoma City will be under the microscope all season. Expectations are high, as they should be for one of the league’s most talented teams, but another reason for the increased attention being paid to OKC is the disaster scenario: Durant leaving as a free agent in July of 2016.
Not since the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2010 has an NBA team’s future been more of a mystery than the current Thunder franchise. The Thunder cannot trade Durant, even if he’s unsigned before February’s trade deadline. It would send the wrong message because, if healthy, their roster is championship-caliber with Durant leading the way. It also means taking the risk he leaves without netting OKC anything in return, however.
The Cavs were lucky enough to win the 2011 draft lottery with a pick acquired in a previous trade, one that carried just a 2.8 percent chance of winning. Remarkably, the Cavs won the lottery again in 2013 and 2014, with a 1.7 percent chance of success in the latter. These No. 1 picks yielded a franchise point guard in Kyrie Irving and the main trade chip (Andrew Wiggins) that acquired superstar forward Kevin Love from the Minnesota Timberwolves last year.
Oh, and James returned to the Cavs as a free agent in 2014. It was a homecoming for a player with unfinished business in Cleveland.
The chances of the Thunder getting so lucky after losing a superstar are incredibly slim. OKC isn’t Durant’s home, and with Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and a decent bench, the Thunder likely would be too competitive to finish with high odds of winning the lottery.
Losing Durant could have a great impact on Westbrook’s future, too. He’s eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2017, and if Durant is gone and OKC is no longer an elite team, why would Westbrook stay? He’d probably have his choice of any team in free agency as the new television contracts pump huge amounts of money into the league and give just about every general manager salary cap space for at least one max player.
The Heat overcame James’ loss because it had a loyal superstar in Dwyane Wade and successfully convinced another superstar in Chris Bosh to re-sign even though he received interest from other teams. Miami also has a very good coach in Erik Spoelstra, a fantastic executive constructing the roster in Pat Riley and the allure of living in South Beach. Drafting a talented all-around player in Justise Winslow, who surprisingly fell to Miami at No. 10 in the 2015 draft, certainly helps its post-LeBron retool as well.
The Heat will be fine in the short-term. Bosh is still in his prime, Winslow has the potential to be a great defensive player with good offensive upside and Hassan Whiteside already is an elite rim-protecting center. Let’s not forget that Riley has proven he can pull of major trades and free-agent acquisitions, too.
Miami will be a playoff team for years to come in a weak Eastern Conference. The Heat have questions to answer, but not too many. Do they have enough depth to compete with James and the Cavs, and will Winslow become a Kawhi Leonard-type player, one that could slow down James in the playoffs?
OKC’s situation is far different. It’s now or never for the Thunder.
A successful season could help convince Durant to stay long-term, while another disappointing campaign could help push him in another direction.
Basically, the Thunder are at the risk of joining a list of teams that includes the mid-1980s Houston Rockets, late-1980s Dallas Mavericks and the mid-1990s Orlando Magic as teams destined for greatness but were torn apart because of injuries, trades and free agency.
The 2012 NBA Finals might have been OKC’s only shot at winning a title for the foreseeable future. A dynasty over before it began.
It’s a bit sad, but also a harsh reality.
Thumbnail photo via Steve Mitchell/USA TODAY Sports Images
