Red Sox Midseason Check-Up: Several Players On Pace To Surpass 2016 Projections

Tuesday night was a great indication that a lot of things have gone right for the Boston Red Sox this season.

The Red Sox had six American League representatives at Major League Baseball’s 2016 All-Star Game, four of whom started Tuesday at Petco Park. Those four players — David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts — all received All-Star nods by surging past expectations to shine in the first half of the season.

With that in mind, we decided to look back at FanGraphs’ preseason projections for Boston’s key players and see if they’re on pace to reach their goals at the MLB season’s unofficial halfway point. (The Red Sox have 75 games remaining in 2016.)

OVERACHIEVERS
David Ortiz, designated hitter
Preseason projections: 2.3 WAR, 30 HR, 89 RBIs, .264 AVG, .350 OBP
Current statistics: 3.3 WAR, 22 HR, 72 RBIs, .322 AVG, .426 OBP
Ortiz amazingly almost has reached his power numbers at the midseason point and is on pace for one of the best final seasons in MLB history. Enough said.

Xander Bogaerts, shortstop
Preseason projections: 3.0 WAR, 12 HR, 73 RBIs, 8 SB, .289 AVG, .332 OBP
Current statistics: 3.4 WAR, 10 HR, 56 RBIs, 11 SB, .329 AVG, .388 OBP
Bogaerts is on pace to exceed his already lofty expectations, especially in the power department, where he’s just two homers shy of tying his career high with 75 games still remaining.

Mookie Betts, outfielder
Preseason projections: 5.4 WAR, 18 HR, 80 RBIs, 26 SB, .297 AVG, .355 OBP
Current statistics: 3.6 WAR, 18 HR, 59 RBIs, 15 SB, .304 AVG, .344 OBP
Like Bogaerts, Betts is excelling in the power department, where he’s second on the team in homers and RBIs despite batting in the leadoff spot.

Jackie Bradley Jr., outfielder
Preseason projections: 2.2 WAR, 12 HR, 59 RBIs, 8 SB, .247 AVG, .319 OBP
Current statistics: 3.3 WAR, 14 HR, 55 RBIs, 7 SB, .297 AVG, .378 OBP
JBJ is in the midst of a breakout season and has transformed from a No. 9 hitter to a legitimate threat in the middle of Boston’s lineup.

Dustin Pedroia, second baseman
Preseason projections: 2.5 WAR, 9 HR, 51 RBIs, 7 SB, .279 AVG, .339 OBP
Current statistics: 2.4 WAR, 8 HR, 37 RBIs, 5 SB, .304 AVG, .368 OBP
Pedroia finally is healthy and is on pace to put together one of his better MLB seasons at 32 years old.

Hanley Ramirez, first baseman
Preseason projections: 1.7 WAR, 13 HR, 67 RBIs, 12 SB, .277 AVG, .358 OBP
Current statistics: 0.9 WAR, 8 HR, 48 RBIs, 7 SB, .288 AVG, .367 OBP
Expectations weren’t too high for Ramirez after a disappointing 2015 campaign, but he’s currently outpacing his projections, albeit by a slim margin.

Travis Shaw, third baseman
Preseason projections: 0.0 WAR, 16 HR, 57 RBIs, 3 SB, .238 AVG, .305 OBP
Current statistics: 1.3 WAR, 9 HR, 48 RBIs, 4 SB, .269 AVG, .332 OBP
Shaw has been in a funk of late, but he wasn’t even first on the third base depth chart before the season thanks to Pablo Sandoval, so he falls into this category by default.

Steven Wright, starting pitcher
Preseason projections: 0.8 WAR, 110 IP, 78 K, 4.58 ERA, 4.50 FIP
Current statistics: 2.2 WAR, 114 IP, 94 K, 2.68 ERA, 3.64 FIP
Wright has gone from afterthought to All-Star in the span of half a season and shows no signs of slowing down.

Rick Porcello, starting pitcher
Preseason projections: 2.3 WAR, 187 1/3 IP, 140 K, 4.18 ERA, 3.70 FIP
Current statistics: 1.9 WAR, 113 IP, 97 K, 3.66 ERA, 3.87 FIP
The Red Sox’s wins leader with an 11-2 record, Porcello is on track to have a nice bounce-back season in Year Two with Boston.

UNDERACHIEVERS
David Price, starting pitcher
Preseason projections: 4.9 WAR, 209 1/3 IP, 211 K, 3.35 ERA, 2.93 FIP
Current statistics: 1.6 WAR, 124 1/3 IP, 140 K, 4.34 ERA, 3.42 FIP
Price was supposed to be the Red Sox’s ace, and so far, he hasn’t been. There’s plenty of season left, however, and he is on pace to surpass his strikeout projections.

Eduardo Rodriguez, starting pitcher
Preseason projections: 2.4 WAR, 167 1/3 IP, 141 K, 3.98 ERA, 3.66 FIP
Current statistics: -0.9 WAR, 29 1/3 IP, 21 K, 8.59 ERA, 6.96 FIP
A spring training knee injury has resulted in a small sample size, and E-Rod has the chance to turn things around in the second half. But Boston clearly had higher hopes for him.

Clay Buchholz, starting pitcher/relief pitcher
Preseason projections: 2.0 WAR, 126 2/3 IP, 109 K, 3.91 ERA, 3.44 FIP
Current statistics: -0.9 WAR, 80 2/3 IP, 53 K, 5.91 ERA, 6.05 FIP
Are you sensing a trend here? Like Rodriguez, Buchholz still can reverse his fortunes, but he’s running out of time.

Joe Kelly, starting pitcher
Preseason projections: 1.3 WAR, 126 2/3 IP, 103 K, 4.26 ERA, 3.99 FIP
Current statistics: -0.6 WAR, 22 1/3 IP, 27 K, 8.46 ERA, 5.91 FIP
Kelly also has been bitten by the injury bug in an underwhelming first half. He faces an uphill battle to return to the Red Sox’s rotation.

Craig Kimbrel, relief pitcher
Preseason projections: 1.1 WAR, 59 2/3 IP, 82 K, 2.72 ERA, 2.65 FIP
Current statistics: 0.6 WAR, 33 IP, 50 K, 3.55 ERA, 2.87 FIP
Kimbrel has shown flashes of brilliance but not enough to live up to his lofty expectations, and a knee injury will make it difficult for him to his projections.