Anyone who watched Game 2 of the NBA’s Eastern Conference finals knows the contest was well over before halftime, and the statistics bear that out.
The Boston Celtics trailed the Cleveland Cavaliers by a whopping 41 points after the second quarter, the largest halftime deficit in NBA playoff history. Prediction models gave Boston a 0.6 percent chance to win, according to The Boston Globe, and that number shrunk to 0.1 percent with the C’s carrying a 46-point deficit into the fourth quarter.
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But there’s another Boston-area team that had similar odds to win a playoff game — and impossibly came through.
That’s right: The New England Patriots also had a 0.1 chance to beat the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI when they trailed 28-3 with 6:12 to play in the third quarter.
A look at the dramatic turn in win probability in the Patriots' Super Bowl win pic.twitter.com/1SYGxRBuEK
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) February 6, 2017
The Patriots, of course, mounted the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history to win in overtime, while the Celtics stumbled to a 130-86 blowout loss.
While the circumstances are different (most important: The Celtics don’t employ Tom Brady), it’s still mind-boggling to think that the C’s had the same probability of winning Game 2 — despite losing by nearly 50 points with 12 minutes to play and looking completely dead in the water the entire game — as New England did of winning Super Bowl LI.
Boston will need some serious magic to turn its series around against Cleveland, as the Cavs outscored the Celtics by a combined 57 points during Games 1 and 2 at TD Garden. But as Brady and Co. have taught us: It’s never over until it’s over.
Thumbnail photo via David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports Images
