A rapidly changing automotive ownership model is causing analysts to make Y2K-like predictions about where the industry is heading.
Advisory firm KPMG predicts in a new report that sedan sales will drop by more than 50 percent in the United States by 2030, according to Reuters. KPMG claims that as ride-hailing companies utilize more self-driving vehicles, costs will fall, making these services preferable to owning a car.
Google and Waymo, as well as traditional OEMs, already have begun testing driverless ride-hailing fleets in select markets, and KPMG suggests more companies will follow suit.
The U.S. already has seen a massive decline in small car sales, with consumers trending toward SUVs and pickup trucks. As a result, many automakers, such as Toyota, have begun altering their production strategy to cope with the shift in demand.
This is far from the most dramatic forecast we’ve seen regarding the impact of autonomous cars. Veteran automotive executive Bob Lutz recently wrote in Automotive News that he thinks human-operated vehicles will be illegal within 15 to 20 years “at the latest” — which coincides with the timeline for KPMG’s predictions.
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