It’s time for New England Patriots fans to get realistic.
Regardless of what happens in the draft, the majority of the Patriots’ Week 1 defensive starters already are among the 70 players taking up space on the team’s 90-man roster. It’s possible the Patriots still could swing a trade for a defensive starter, and head coach Bill Belichick could select a player in the first or second round of the 2018 NFL Draft who could earn a spot on the first team in training camp. But the majority of starters are currently on the roster.
So, how will the Patriots’ defensive front look after the first wave of offseason acquisitions?
The Patriots primarily play in a nickel defense with five defensive backs on the field. Those five players likely will be Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon (barring a suspension), Stephon Gilmore and either Jason McCourty or Eric Rowe.
The front six is more fluid, and the Patriots could elect to line up in one of three different ways.
The Patriots liked having three down linemen and an outside linebacker standing up on the edge during 2017. Here’s how that would look with the players currently on the roster:
DE: Trey Flowers
DT: Malcom Brown, Danny Shelton/Lawrence Guy
LB Don’t Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Derek Rivers/Eric Lee/Elandon Roberts
CB Gilmore, Jason McCourty/Rowe
S Devin McCourty, Chung, Harmon
— If the Patriots went with either Rivers or Lee, then Hightower and Van Noy would be the off-the-line linebackers. If Roberts was a defensive starter, then either Hightower or Van Noy would kick down onto the edge of the line.
— That’s the smallest and most athletic option. The Patriots likely are hopeful Rivers can take on a starting role, and he has the most upside as the final starter. But he’s also coming off a torn ACL.
The biggest option would be to have three 300-pounders on the field at the same time. Here’s how that currently would look:
DE: Flowers
DT: Brown, Shelton, Guy
LB: Hightower, Van Noy
CB: Gilmore, Jason McCourty/Rowe
S: Devin McCourty, Chung, Harmon
— This would be best against the run, but Brown, Shelton, Guy and Flowers would have trouble generating much of a pass rush.
The Patriots also could go with more of a traditional defensive front with two defensive ends.
Here’s how that currently would look:
DE: Flowers, Adrian Clayborn/Deatrich Wise/Rivers
DT: Brown, Shelton/Guy
LB: Hightower, Van Noy
CB: Gilmore, Jason McCourty/Rowe
S: Devin McCourty, Chung, Harmon
— The Atlanta Falcons used Clayborn as a third-down pass rusher. He was a three-down player early in his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but his best seasons have come when he’s been a situational player.
— Wise showed promise as a rookie and could potentially take on a bigger role as a second-year player. Rivers is undersized to play as a starting defensive end, but he could still bulk up.
It’s still March, but it’s relatively safe to assume, barring injury, that Flowers, Brown, Hightower, Van Noy, Gilmore, Devin McCourty, Chung and Harmon will be on the field for the majority of 2017 snaps. So, there are essentially three more “starting” spots available.
Guy and Shelton will battle for snaps, as will Jason McCourty and Rowe. That 11th spot could come down to a number of different players who play a number of different positions. And who earns that spot ultimately will be decided by Belichick and linebackers coach Brian Flores based on what alignment they want to run and who performs best over the summer.
Let the best man win.
