The New England Patriots have been to three consecutive Super Bowls — four in the past five seasons — and there’s a very good chance they’ll represent the AFC in competing for the Lombardi Trophy on the game’s biggest stage again this season.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) — which uses its strength ratings for each team to simulate the season 20,000 times — determined the 10 most likely matchups for Super Bowl LIV after Week 4, according to a piece published Tuesday on ESPN.com. Three of the top five (and five of the top 10) matchups feature the Patriots, who are vying for their seventh title in franchise history.
The most likely Super Bowl LIV matchup, according to ESPN’s FPI: the Patriots vs. the Dallas Cowboys.
FPI gave that particular showdown an 8 percent chance of coming to fruition.
Here’s what ESPN considers a “number to know” for that potential matchup:
Tom Brady will grab most of the headlines in this matchup, but Dak Prescott leads the league in Total QBR at 86.6, six spots ahead of Brady (65.6). Plus, Dallas leads the league in pass block win rate — an ESPN metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats — meaning Prescott is getting better pass protection than any other quarterback.
Here are the 10 most likely Super Bowl LIV matchups after four weeks, per ESPN’s FPI, along with the chance of each happening:
1. Patriots vs. Cowboys, 8 percent
2. Chiefs vs. Cowboys, 7 percent
3. Patriots vs. 49ers, 7 percent
4. Patriots vs. Rams, 7 percent
5. Chiefs vs. 49ers, 7 percent
6. Chiefs vs. Rams, 7 percent
7. Patriots vs. Saints, 5 percent
8. Chiefs vs. Saints, 5 percent
9. Patriots vs. Packers, 4 percent
10. Chiefs vs. Packers, 4 percent
It’s obviously still very early in the NFL season, but it’s unsurprising to see the Patriots and Chiefs featured so heavily in the potential matchups. The two met in last season’s AFC Championship Game, which New England won in overtime en route to defeating the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII, and both teams have carried their success over to the 2019 campaign.
ESPN’s FPI is a prediction system that assigns each team a rating based on a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play. That rating then is the basis for game-level and season-level projections, like the ones highlighted above.
While the Patriots are included in the FPI’s most likely Super Bowl LIV matchup, the Chiefs actually have a slightly higher FPI rating through four weeks. Kansas City (9.9 offense, -0.9 defense, 0.3 special teams) boasts a 9.3 FPI rating, whereas New England (3.3 offense, 5.6 defense, 0.1 special teams) owns a 9.0 FPI rating — both well ahead of the third-ranked Cowboys (4.9 offense, 0.0 defense, -0.3 special teams), who have a 4.6 FPI rating.
