Kenneth Murray and the New England Patriots forever will be linked.
Maybe it’ll wind up being inconsequential in the long run, but the Los Angeles Chargers selected Murray with the first-round 2020 NFL Draft pick (No. 23 overall) they acquired from the Patriots on Thursday night. So, the connection exists.
Now, it’s nearly impossible to fully assess the trade until we see how the Patriots use the second-round pick (No. 37) and third-round pick (No. 71) they obtained from the Chargers. And the deal actually makes sense for New England on its surface. But the reality is Bill Belichick passed on a player with plenty of upside — at an area of need, no less — which could make for interesting revisionist history down the road.
Consider this: ESPN’s Seth Walder, a big analytics guy, wrote a piece earlier this month in which he identified the five most likely Pro Bowl-caliber players in the 2020 NFL Draft. Murray landed at No. 3, with a 69 percent chance of becoming Pro Bowl-caliber.
Here’s how Walder evaluated the Oklahoma linebacker, whom he compared to Stephone Anthony (formerly of the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints) from an athleticism standpoint:
Inside linebacker is another position that scouts are particularly successful at forecasting, the model believes. That was evident this time last year when Devin White and Devin Bush led this same exercise.
That — along with a strong 4.52 40-time, which puts Murray in the 91 percentile, per MockDraftable.com — is why the model is so confident in him despite being Scouts Inc.’s 25th-ranked player. His projection trailed White’s by just a hair. Given that Murray is expected to be a late first-rounder, the model will surely consider him the steal of this group.
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Of course, you’re probably wondering where that 69 percent came from. We could give you the ol’ shrug emoji — numbers, man — but basically, according to Walder, it’s from a model that leans on Scouts Inc. grades (a qualitative assessment) and incorporates measurable/combine information while also factoring in position.
Murray entered the draft as arguably the best inside linebacker available, and New England was considered a potential fit, with linebackers Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts and Jamie Collins all leaving in free agency. The Patriots didn’t feel compelled to pull the trigger and draft Murray, though, instead choosing to bridge the sizable gap that existed between their first pick (No. 23) and their second pick (No. 87) prior to Thursday’s trade.
Ultimately, this could prove wise, especially if the Patriots use their newfound flexibility to address the quarterback position on Day 2 or even Day 3. It’s still worth keeping Murray’s name in mind, though, just as it’s worth monitoring how fellow late-first-round linebackers Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech) and Patrick Queen (LSU) — selected 27th and 28th by the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens, respectively — fare at the next level.
For what it’s worth, Tom Brady will be happy to learn Iowa tackle Tristan Wirfs — selected 13th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — landed at No. 1 in Walder’s exercise, with a 79 percent chance of becoming a Pro Bowl-caliber player. Louisville tackle Mekhi Becton (75 percent) checked in at No. 2.
Murray placed just ahead of Clemson defensive standout Isaiah Simmons (67 percent) and Ohio State star pass-rusher Chase Young (52 percent), who were selected by the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Redskins at No. 8 and No. 2 overall, respectively, in Round 1.
