The Miami Dolphins travel to Allegiant Stadium on Saturday eyeing a much-needed win over the stumbling Las Vegas Raiders.
Head coach Brian Flores and the 9-5 Dolphins currently possess the third wild card in the AFC, holding the seventh and final playoff spot with two games left. Miami likely will need to win out in order to hold off the surging Baltimore Ravens.
The 7-7 Raiders, on the flip side, are almost certainly out of the playoff picture following a Week 15 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here’s a betting preview for Saturday night’s Dolphins-Raiders matchup.
Miami Dolphins (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
There is no better team against the spread than the Dolphins. Miami is a rather impressive 11-3 ATS this season, including a 4-2 ATS record in games away from Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins, led by their defense which is first in the NFL in points allowed, have cashed in on the over just five times in 14 games this season, including a 2-4 record against the line in away games.
Las Vegas is 7-7 ATS this season, but is below .500 at home with a modest 3-4 record. The Raiders, whose defense allows more points than 28 other teams, have had the over hit in 11 of 14 games this season. The over has cashed in in six of seven Las Vegas home games, as well.
(via DraftKings Sportsbook)
First-half line, total
Miami -1.5, 23.5
First touchdown scorer
Josh Jacobs +700
Salvon Ahmed +700
Myles Gaskin +850
Darren Waller +950
Mike Gesickt +1050
DeVante Parkers +1050
Derek Carr over/under 234.5
Tua Tagovailoa over.under 232.5
Josh Jacobs over/under 69.5
Myles Gaskin over/under 50.5
Tua Tagovailoa over/under 13.5
Darren Waller over/under 55.5
Nelson Agholor over/under 46.5
DeVante Parker over/under 45.5
Myles Gaskin over/under 16.5
Josh Jacobs over/under 15.5
PICK: Miami -3
As stated, the Dolphins have the league’s best scoring defense as opponents have scored 22 touchdowns in 39 red zone attempts. Miami is also best in the league in third down with a pass defense led by cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. It should allow the Dolphins to match up rather well with the Raiders, who heavily rely on tight end Darren Waller in the passing game.
The Dolphins are far from an offensive juggernaut, but are coming off a game in which they rushed for 250 yards against the New England Patriots. On top of that, Las Vegas has been poor on that side of the ball all year. The Raiders did showcase a much better run defense during a Week 15 loss as veteran play caller Rod Marinelli took over, but we’re still not very confident in Vegas.
Much like Saturday’s afternoon game between the Cardinals and 49ers, the fact that Miami has a playoff berth on the line while the Raiders’ season is one week closer to over, we like Flores and Co. in this spot.