I am starting to sound like a broken record.
Ten days ago, we discussed how sportsbooks were making it more expensive for you to bet “Unders” in Boston Bruins games.
The total opened 5.5u+100 for Boston’s season opener against the New Jersey Devils, which means you had to risk $100 to win $100 on the Under. That price got more expensive in the coming days as the market opened 5.5u-105 and 5.5u-130 for the Bruins’ second and third games of the campaign, respectively.
Books essentially maneuvered the juice, so you had to risk an extra 30 cents per dollar (+100 to -130) to bet an Under over the span of just three hockey games.
Then Boston found itself in a third-period track meet with the Philadelphia Flyers last Thursday. The two teams combined for six goals in the third and the Bruins won 5-4 in a shootout. It was the first Over in a Bruins game this season. The B’s routed Philly 6-1 last Saturday for another Over.
Those two results essentially recalibrated the Bruins’ total market.
Betting markets are shaped by money wagered, but opening numbers are frequently affected by recency bias. Sportsbooks weighed those 11 Bruins’ goals over two games combined with the “high-flying” Pittsburgh Penguins rolling into town and decided to open Tuesday night’s total at 6u-125.
That 6u-125 was available for a few hours before the market quickly corrected itself and got bet down to 5.5u+105. Of course, the B’s lead 2-0 after two periods and eventually prevailed 3-2 in overtime.
Make that four Bruins Unders in six hockey games.
Thursday night’s total against Pittsburgh opened 5.5u+110 and money has already shown for the Under. Most sportsbooks are now dealing 5.5u+100 and some shops are even dealing 5.5u-105.
Best Under teams in hockey so far:
Red Wings 5-2
All signs point to Jaroslav Halak getting the call in net for Bruce Cassidy’s bunch and Tristan Jarry starting for the Pens. Pittsburgh loves to push the pace and turn up the tempo, but I believe in the Bruins’ 200-foot game and respect their defensive responsibility too much.
I’m going Under 5.5 goals (+100).
RECORD: (13-8-1, +4.1)
NESN is rolling out its first hockey Predict the Game for the Bruins game tonight. Our first question goes live at 6:30 p.m. ET on “Bruins Face-Off Live” and throughout the night, you’ll see predictive hockey questions to answer on our broadcast. The participant who scores the most points during the Bruins-Penguins game will win $500.
Head over to NESN.com/PredictTheGame to create your account now.
It’s free to play and free to win!