I love betting spots that involve ignoring recency bias.
The Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals played to a 1-1 tie at the end of 60 minutes Wednesday night in a disjointed game with few shots and little offensive production. I picked “Over” six goals in that one and obviously never had a chance to cash that ticket.
It was a very tight-checked hockey game, which was pretty surprising given how the first two meetings were played at a much more up-and-down style. The B’s pumped 75 shots on goal in those two tilts and generated only 19 on Wednesday. Hmmmm.
Even in a dead “Under” game, it was easy to see the potential for instant offense. T.J. Oshie’s first-period goal was called back for offsides, David Pastrnak hit a post and Alex Ovechkin missed a wide-open net. And both goaltenders made some Herculean saves.
I believe in natural regression and feel like we’re due for a lot more open ice and tons more scoring chances on Friday. The oddsmakers clearly agree, too. We discussed the significance of Wednesday’s B’s-Capitals total opening higher than the standard “Over-Under” of 5.5. It was the highest total of Boston’s entire season.
And even after the aforementioned 2-1 final score, guess where the books opened the total for Bruins-Capitals: Part IV?
That’s extremely telling. Bookmakers could have easily made the total 5.5 and still written plenty of money on the “Under.”
People love to react directly to what they’ve last seen and I promise you that many bettors will see that “6” again and rush to bet “Under.” It feels like a free space and we’re not going to fall into that trap.
Let’s run it back on the “Over” and bank on offensive regression the right way.
WSH-BOS Over 6 goals (-110)
RECORD: (21-12, +7.7)
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