The Boston Bruins have a 76 percent chance of beating the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday night at KeyBank Center.
That’s the implied chance of probability for a -320 favorite at the betting window, which is why it’s so expensive to bet the B’s on the moneyline. You have to risk $320 to win $100. Thanks, but no thanks.
One could argue that Buffalo is due after four losses in four tries against Boston, but there’s zero reason to put any faith in that anemic Sabres offense. Sure, they can score five goals against the Philadelphia Flyers or the Washington Capitals, but the Bruins have given them absolute fits. When Buffalo has to work for offense, it is in trouble.
Buffalo goals vs. B’s this season
March 18 at BUF: 1
March 27 at BOS: 2
April 13 at BOS: 2
April 20 at BUF: 0
Five goals in four games ain’t gonna cut it — especially when facing an extremely physical hockey team like the B’s. Assuming Boston is focused and plays a responsible 200-foot game, Buffalo’s scoring chances are going to be few and far between. The Sabres also just don’t have many finishers at the net.
The Boston blue line continues to get healthier as Matt Grzelcyk and Charlie McAvoy are back on the top pairing Thursday night in western New York. Rookie goalie Jeremy Swayman (4-1-0, 1.78 GAA) gets the call between the pipes and I have no reason to believe the B’s won’t be buzzing in front of him.
I refuse to bet either team on the moneyline in this game and the total (O/U 5.5) is tough, too, given the Bruins’ ability to win 5-1 or 6-1 against the worst team in the National Hockey League.
The only way I would bet this game would be to look “Under” Buffalo’s team goal total. Some American sportsbooks offer exotic betting markets on team totals. DraftKings Sportsbook has “Under 2” at -125 and even though you’ll tie on two lit lamps, I don’t see the Sabres scoring three times.
And how about a flier on a shutout for the kid?
Sabres Under 2 goals -125
Swayman shutout +880
RECORD: (29-23, +4.1)
Predict the Game returns to NESN on Thursday night. Our first question goes live at 6:30 p.m. ET on “Bruins Face-off Live” and throughout the night, you’ll see predictive hockey questions to answer on our broadcast. The participant who scores the most points during the B’s-Sabres game will win a $500 gift card.
Head over to NESN.com/PredictTheGame to create your account now.
It’s free to play and free to win!