On the surface, there's certainly reason for the Red Sox to be skeptical about sending Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill for Game 3 of the American League Championship Series.
The Boston left-hander will take the ball Monday night against the Houston Astros in a pivotal Game 3 with the series tied at one game apiece. The Red Sox are sure hoping Rodriguez can put two miserable regular-season starts against a loaded Houston lineup behind him.
Rodriguez was roughed up for 12 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings over the course of two starts versus Houston spanning two weeks in late May and early June. The obvious retort to that, though, is those two starts were a long time ago and much has changed since then. There were probably similar sentiments heading into Rodriguez's Game 4 start against the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Division Series.
Rodriguez, after a Game 1 stinker, rebounded with a much better effort in the eventual clincher. Boston manager Alex Cora and the Red Sox have confidence a similar bounce-back is in order Monday night at Fenway Park.
"We all struggled against them during the season. It's different," Cora told reporters Sunday, alluding to his club's 2-5 regular-season mark versus Houston. "Game planning, a lot of things that we learned throughout. At that point, he wasn't on point. I think the change-up wasn't good. It was a bad sinker. I do believe he will be OK.
"The pitcher we have no compared to who he was when we went there and then he pitched here, it's a lot different. The velocity is up. The change-up is where he wants it (now)."
It's a fair point by Cora for a couple of reasons. The first is that Rodriguez's early-season starts should be viewed through a slightly different lens. While he had a full spring training to build up his strength, it's worthwhile to wonder whether he was still shaking off the rust after missing the entire 2020 season due to myocarditis from a bout with COVID-19.
As for the second point, the numbers certainly seem to indicate improvement. Opposing hitters hit .367 against Rodriguez's sinker from May through July. Really, they teed off on just about anything that wasn't a four-seam fastball for those three months.
MAY THROUGH JULY
| Pitch | Avg. against |
| Sinker | .367 |
| Changeup | .297 |
| Slider | .292 |
| Cutter | .318 |
Since then (including the playoffs), however, Rodriguez clearly has figured some things out, to Cora's point.
AUGUST THROUGH NOW
| Pitch | Avg. against |
| Sinker | .200 |
| Changeup | .247 |
| Slider | .211 |
| Cutter | .278 |
It's also fair to assume Rodriguez will be working with the shortest of leashes. The Sox feel good about their bullpen set up after a relatively easy Game 2 and the off-day Sunday. Boston doesn't have to sit around and let Rodriguez try to find himself if he doesn't have it. That, too, should go a long way in helping to limit any damage.
Rodriguez's relative inconsistency makes it impossible to know which version of the southpaw will take the Fenway mound Monday night. But there should be cautious optimism he's better positioned to take on a loaded Astros lineup now than he was earlier in the season.
