Patriots Mailbag: Can Struggling Offense Be Fixed After Bye?

Time for a little bye-week New England Patriots mailbag. Let’s dive right in.

@KP_Booth
1. What are the chances Patricia and Judge can overcome the mistakes of the first half of the season and make this offense productive? 2. If they can’t, does Bill admit his mistake and bring in actual offensive coaches or does he double down?
I don’t think the offense is a complete lost cause. I think if they use the bye week to get some key players healthy, hone in on the things they do well and reshape the offense to accentuate those aspects, we could see a second-half turnaround. On paper, this group has more talent than the 2021 offense that, while flawed, finished last season ranked ninth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and 10th in expected points added per play. So far this season, they’re 25th in both of those metrics.

Do Matt Patricia and Joe Judge have the offensive coaching capabilities to engineer that type of bounce-back? We’ll find out. And that brings us to Part 2 of your question: What if they don’t? What if this offense continues to sputter and Mac Jones never rediscovers his rookie-year form? What then? Would Bill Belichick stubbornly stick with this controversial configuration for another season or scrap it and bring in a proven offensive coach, a la Bill O’Brien?

According to reports, part of the reason Belichick did not tab O’Brien to replace Josh McDaniels was, along with not wanting to poach from Nick Saban’s Alabama staff, that he didn’t think it was a good idea to hire an offensive coordinator who had a high likelihood of landing a head-coaching job after one season if things went well, thus forcing the Patriots to find another replacement. (I thought that would have been a risk worth taking, but that’s beside the point.)

Does that mean he’d be more inclined to run it back with Patricia and Judge in the name of continuity? I think that would be a mistake if things don’t improve over these next nine weeks.

@FMAMLikeMike
Is a Josh McDaniels reunion on the table for next season? If not, would they entertain a Billy B reunion or someone else from the collegiate ranks?
If McDaniels is fired after one season in Las Vegas, then yes, I absolutely could see him returning to Foxboro in 2023. I think that would be an excellent break for the Patriots. But I don’t think that’s likely. Even with how bad things have been for the 2-6 Raiders — who now will be without two of their best players in Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow for at least the next four games — it doesn’t seem like Mark Davis wants to can McDaniels just one year into his contract.

Maybe a full-blown implosion down the stretch would change his mind, though. The Raiders were a playoff team last season, and they currently sit in third-to-last place in the AFCe.

@ashley1992__
Hi Zack, in regard to the sign-stealing, it seems that BB is admitting it’s an issue because he knows what the problem is and knows he has 2 weeks to fix it. Is that a fair take and who do you think is to blame for this?
Hi Ashley, I wouldn’t think of it as sign-stealing. It’s not like Shaquille Leonard and C.J. Mosely were intercepting the Patriots’ play calls as they came in from the sideline. They’d just closely studied New England’s offense and, based on certain personnel, alignment and situational tells, were able to correctly predict which play it was going to run.

Multiple Patriots defenders downplayed this in-game deciphering, essentially saying it comes with the territory when you go against players like Leonard and Mosely, two of the best linebackers the Patriots will face all season. But offensive players clearly found it unusual enough to be discussing it in the locker room postgame.

Patricia and the Patriots need to do some serious self-scouting during the bye to ensure they’re not nearly as predictable in the back half of the season.

Patriots Midseason Superlatives: Top Studs, Duds From First Half

Nov 10, 2022

@mtd10mm
How instrumental is Andrews , not just for the O line as a whole but for Cole Strange?
Very, and that’s why I believe there’s some reason for optimism for the Patriots’ O-line coming out of the bye. If you think back a few weeks, New England went through about prolonged stretch where line play was not a major issue for its offense. There were and are problems at right tackle, of course, but the rest of the unit was holding up reasonably well. That includes rookie left guard Cole Strange, who’s played so poorly in his two games without David Andrews next to him that he was benched in both.

It’s hard to say exactly how much Andrews’ concussion affected Strange’s play, but it certainly didn’t help matters. Getting the longtime center back post-bye — which seems likely after Andrews returned to practice Wednesday — should help get the Patriots’ first-round draft pick back on track. It also didn’t help that New England faced two of the NFL’s best defensive tackles in Quinnen Williams and DeForest Buckner while Andrews was out.

The right tackle spot is separate conversation; getting Andrews back won’t help whoever’s playing there. It’s been the Patriots’ weakest position all season, and they don’t have many other options to try outside of bumping Mike Onwenu out from guard. I wouldn’t rule that out — Onwenu has played right tackle at a high level in his career — but he’s been very good inside this season, and moving him out of his current spot could just create more problems.

In my view, the most likely scenarios involve the Patriots either sticking with Yodny Cajuste, who struggled in pass protection against the Colts, or giving Isaiah Wynn one last shot. Marcus Cannon is on injured reserve so he won’t be available for at least the next three games.

One way or another, the Patriots need to figure out some sort of solution here.

@PatrickBDevitt
Does Hoyer ever dress again if Jones/Zappe are healthy?
Probably not. Now that Bailey Zappe has proven that he can at least be a serviceable NFL quarterback, I don’t see any reason for Brian Hoyer to jump him on the depth chart unless Zappe gets injured. I think there’s still value in having an experienced QB like Hoyer in the meeting rooms and around Jones and Zappe, but from an on-field perspective, they really don’t need him at this point. I’d be surprised if the Patriots activated him off injured reserve without an injury to one of their other signal-callers.

@NickDohn
what would your thoughts be on dan orlovsky joining the offensive or being the OC next year
Multiple people asked this same question, which I was not expecting. I like the analysis Orlovsky provides on ESPN and on Twitter. He clearly knows football. I could see him bringing value and a fresh perspective to the Patriots’ coaching staff. It’s also clear from numerous media interviews that he wants to coach.

But offensive coordinator? That would shock me. Belichick is known for constructing his staff in unconventional ways, but I cannot see him handing the keys to his offense to someone with zero coaching experience and no real connection to the Patriots, outside of his Connecticut roots.