Patriots Mailbag: How Should Pats Change Offense Post-Bye?

With the demise of Twitter seemingly imminent, buckle in for what might be the last ever NESN.com New England Patriots mailbag.

Just kidding. Even if Twitter goes kaput in the coming hours or days, I’ll still find some way to field your most pressing Patriots questions each Friday. Smoke signals? Carrier pigeons? Handwritten letters? One of those giant horns that yodelers use? Dunno, I’ll think of something.

Anyway, on to this week’s batch:

@GuidoHoncho
When do we stop trying to force passes and start running people over with Harris and Stevenson?
I don’t think the Patriots necessarily need to run more often. They still rank in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing attempts per game, and they’re 25th in yards per carry. But I do think they should alter how they run.

As Phil Perry over at NBC Sports Boston neatly summarized this week, they Patriots have struggled on zone runs — which they repped ad nauseam during training camp in the preseason — this season but have been excellent on gap runs, which employ a different blocking philosophy. They’re 27th in the NFL in yards per zone-running play but first in yards per gap-running play, averaging a healthy 6.1 yards per carry on the latter.

The Patriots’ offense traditionally has favored gap runs, which often feature pulling linemen and allow Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris direct their momentum straight downfield rather than drifting to one side and searching for a crease in the defense. It’s clear those types of play calls still are yielding positive results.

Bill Belichick, Matt Patricia and the rest of New England’s offensive brain trust should have spent the bye week identifying what’s working and what’s not for this unit and taking steps to accentuate the former. A shift back toward a gap-heavy run game certainly would qualify. I also think they could benefit from a more liberal use of play-action and RPOs. Per Pro-Football-Reference’s charting, they’ve run the sixth-fewest RPOs this season (15) and have ninth-fewest play-action pass attempts (45).

Either or both of those could loosen up the Patriots’ stagnant passing attack and help remedy some of their receiver separation issues. It’ll be very interesting to see how, if at all, New England changes up its offensive strategy when it hosts the New York Jets this Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

@Steve_Jones1974
Is Damien Harris ever gonna get back to 50% of the work or is this R stev’s backfield?
I wouldn’t count on it. Stevenson essentially is the Patriots’ co-lead back on early downs (along with Harris) and their No. 1 back on passing downs. With Ty Montgomery now reportedly lost for the season and rookie Pierre Strong clearly not ready to play even a minor role on offense, I doubt that setup will change in the coming weeks.

Stevenson’s workload will be worth monitoring, though, and I’m sure the Patriots would like to lighten it whenever possible. As I wrote after the Montgomery news broke, Stevenson has been on the field for 66.1% of New England’s offensive snaps this season, which would be by far the highest rate for any Patriots running back since Pro-Football-Reference began recording snap counts in 2012.

The current leader in that category is James White, who played 53.6% in 2018. The highest mark by a non-third-down back is 47.1% by LeGarrette Blount in 2016.

Stevenson has been the Patriots’ best offensive player so far this season, so it’s been hard to take him off the field, especially in the games Harris has missed. New England gave J.J. Taylor 10 carries in their most recent game, and he gained a total of 9 yards behind a leaky offensive line that struggled mightily without starting center David Andrews. Stevenson, meanwhile, used his rare ability to break and evade tackles to gain 133 yards over the two games Andrews missed, with a remarkable 126 of them coming after contact, per PFF.

At the same time, any sort of injury to Stevenson could completely cripple a New England offense that already ranks near the bottom of the NFL in most categories. Durability has not been an issue for the second-year pro thus far — he hasn’t missed a game or practice and has yet to appear on the injury report — but the Patriots need to ensure he stays fresh and healthy for the stretch run.

These Three Questions Will Define Rest Of Patriots’ 2022 Season

Nov 16, 2022

@KP_Booth
What are the odds Wynn moving back to left tackle actually improves his play? Is he too far gone?
The ideal situation for the Patriots would be Isaiah Wynn to finally click at right tackle. That’s really been the only glaring weak spot on their offensive line when everyone is healthy. But I don’t have much confidence in that happening. Wynn has been working at right tackle since the spring, and we’ve seen minimal improvement. He was benched in two of his last three starts, then came off the bench and played left guard in the last two games. Maybe the Patriots give him one last shot coming out of the bye, but we’ve seen evidence this week that they could be moving him back to left tackle.

My take on that? If they see no hope for him on the right side, it’s worth a shot. Wynn has been a serviceable left tackle when healthy throughout his career, and Trent Brown was great at right tackle for most of the second half of last season.

If the Patriots do flip their tackles back to their 2021 alignment, Brown would be the fourth player to start at right tackle for them this season, joining Wynn (six starts), Marcus Cannon (two) and Yodny Cajuste (one). They need to find some sort of viable solution at that position.

I do think you will see improvement from the Patriots’ O-line this week regardless of who’s in that spot, however. Getting starting center David Andrews back from his concussion is massive after watching how poorly that group — and the offense as a whole — performed without him.

@Magic8Bill
Will you be seeing 80 For Brady?
I’ll probably feel obligated to check it out for work purposes, since we still write a whole lot about ol’ Tom on this here website. But the first trailer was pretty cringeworthy. Don’t think I’ll be lining up to see it opening night.

@BSCREWDRIVER
Does Mac start for the patriots in sept 23 !
I say yes. But he has a lot to prove over these next eight-plus weeks.