The only real certainty about the Red Sox in 2023 is that Boston's batting order will look quite different.
That's not really a surprise, either. The club entered the 2022 campaign knowing change could be on the horizon, especially if players like Xander Bogaerts or Christian Vázquez got to free agency. The Sox got ahead of the Vazquez thing at the trade deadline, and Bogaerts, of course, cashed in with an 11-year megadeal with the San Diego Padres.
The roster turnover continued over the weekend with heart-of-the-order mainstay J.D. Martinez going to the West Coast, too, signing a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In a seemingly corresponding move, the Red Sox reportedly struck a deal with longtime LA infielder Justin Turner.
Here's the running tally midway through the 2022-23 offeason.
Outgoing: Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Christian Vázquez, Eric Hosmer, Franchy Cordero, Tommy Pham (unsigned free agent, could be back)
Incoming: Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner
It's hard to say whether the Red Sox are done. They could certainly fill out a lineup card at this point, and there are younger players in the system who could strengthen the bench in a depth role. The 40-man roster, once the Turner deal is official, will be full. That's not to say another shoe won't drop. The Sox were reportedly at least slightly interested in the idea of trading for Oakland catcher Sean Murphy before the A's shipped him to Atlanta. There was also the report earlier in the offseason that Boston could let Bogaerts walk, move Story back to shortstop and trade for a second baseman.
From that regard, things might still be in flux. However, if the Red Sox are done addressing their main offensive pieces, what might the everyday lineup look like this season?
Here's our best guess at how Alex Cora could fill out the batting order, assuming no other major moves or injuries.
Kiké Hernández, CF
Rafael Devers, 3B
Justin Turner, DH
Triston Casas, 1B
Trevor Story, SS
Masataka Yoshida, LF
Alex Verdugo, RF
Christian Arroyo, 2B
Reese McGuire/Connor Wong, C
-- On its very best day or with full realization of the most bullish projections for the entire batting order, this lineup is really strong. Those are pretty heavy qualifiers, though, and it's especially true when you compare it to a 2022 Opening Day roster that featured a soon-to-be five-time Silver Slugger winner (Bogaerts) and Vázquez ready to start arguably the best offensive season of his career.
-- If Turner gets old, or Casas doesn't take a step or Yoshida is overmatched by big league pitching or Verdugo doesn't rebound after a down year ... if those sorts of "ifs" turn into certainties, then the holes immediately present themselves.
-- Devers is penciled into the No. 2 spot, which is in line with what a lot of teams have done in recent years by moving their best hitter to bat second. It still gives them opportunities to drive in runs while maximizing the number of times they get to the plate. Nearly 75% of Devers' at-bats last season came out of the No. 2 spot, so there's comfort and familiarity. Maybe Cora tries to leverage his run-producing opportunities by moving him into the three-hole.
-- Similarly, Hernández stays in place, too, atop the batting order. When healthy, he did the bulk of his work out of the leadoff spot. If he gets back to 2021 levels where he was getting on base one out of every three plate appearances, it goes a long way in reinforcing the offense.
-- There's going to be an emphasis put on contact moving forward. Four of the top six offenses by wRC+ in 2022 finished in the top five in avoiding strikeouts. Now, with the elimination of shifts, putting the ball in play becomes even more valuable. The Red Sox seem to have made that a priority this winter. Yoshida's bat-to-ball skills in Japan were elite, striking out in just 9% of his career plate appearances. Turner, meanwhile, has one season of 100 or more strikeouts in his big league career. Only 19 players with at least 2,000 plate appearances have a lower strikeout rate than Turner since the start of the 2018 season.
