Patriots Safety Outlook: Devin McCourty Decision Looms Large

As the March 15 start of the new NFL league year approach, we’re taking a position-by-position look at the New England Patriots roster.

Who’s returning? Who could be out the door? What are the biggest questions facing each group?

Next up: the safeties.

UNDER CONTRACT
Kyle Dugger
Adrian Phillips
Joshuah Bledsoe
Brad Hawkins

IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Devin McCourty
Jabrill Peppers

2022 STATS
McCourty (17 games): 71 tackles, four interceptions, eight passes defended, one fumble recovery

Dugger (15 games): 78 tackles, one sack, five tackles for loss, three interceptions, eight passes defended, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, three touchdowns

Phillips (17 games): 66 tackles, three tackles for loss, three passes defended

Peppers (17 games): 60 tackles, two tackles for loss, one fumble recovery

Bledsoe (three games): one tackle

THREE BIG QUESTIONS
1. Will Devin McCourty retire? Safety was the Patriots’ best and deepest position group in 2022, but it could lose its longtime leader this offseason. McCourty, who turns 36 in August, is considering retirement after 13 NFL seasons. He plans to make his final decision in mid-March, right around the start of free agency.

That choice will have major implications for New England’s defense, which has leaned heavily on McCourty’s leadership. The 12-time team captain wears the green dot as the team’s primary defensive communicator and rarely leaves the field, starting every game since 2015 and playing a team-high 97% of defensive snaps this season. (No other teammate was above 80%.)

And though the 2022 Patriots boasted four capable veteran safeties who all had substantial roles for a defense that ranked third in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and tied for second in takeaways, they don’t have an obvious internal replacement for McCourty on their roster.

Dugger, Phillips and impending free agent Peppers all can play McCourty’s free safety spot but are better suited for different positions as strong safety/linebacker hybrids. Bledsoe hardly has seen the field in his two pro seasons, and when he has, he’s been used as a matchup player against tight ends. He did sub in for McCourty during training camp last summer, however, so perhaps the team views the 2021 sixth-round pick as a dark-horse option there.

Jonathan Jones and Jalen Mills — New England’s two starting outside cornerbacks this season — both have played safety in the past, but neither has done so on a full-time basis. Ditto for Myles Bryant, who’s been the Patriots’ top slot corner for the past 1 1/2 seasons. Still, a position change could be in the cards for any of those three players if the Patriots add cornerback help this offseason. Jones (unrestricted) and Bryant (restricted) also are set to hit free agency.

If McCourty walks away and the Patriots prefer to replace him with a more proven commodity, there will be a handful of intriguing options in free agency. Buffalo’s Jordan Poyer is one. He turns 32 in April, but would replace some of McCourty’s smarts, leadership, versatility and coverage ability. Bill Belichick also has a history of poaching Bills players (see: Chris Hogan in 2016, Mike Gillislee in 2017).

Cincinnati’s Jessie Bates III is another potential target, but he’s in his prime at 26 and thus is likely to command a pricier contract. Other notable free agents who could fit the Patriots’ needs include Jimmie Ward, Juan Thornhill, Tashaun Gipson and Julian Love. If they prefer a budget option, old friend Duron Harmon also is available after finishing as Pro Football Focus’s 22nd-highest-graded safety in his first season with Josh McDaniels’ Raiders.

The Patriots also could look to land their next starting free safety in the draft, regardless of whether McCourty chooses to play in 2023.

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2. Is an extension coming for Kyle Dugger? The 2020 second-rounder played at a borderline Pro Bowl level in Year 3, scoring a trifecta of defensive touchdowns — the most by a Patriots defender in a single season since 1970 — and creating another with a forced fumble. He’s smart, versatile, uber-athletic, hits like a truck and is hugely popular in the locker room.

“I think you’re going to have to write Kyle a blank check, that’s how good he is,” edge rusher Matthew Judon said after Dugger ran back a pick-six in a late-season win over Miami, his second in a three-week span.

The window for the Patriots to write that check now is open, as players entering the fourth and final year of their rookie contracts are eligible for extensions. With Dugger looking like a foundational piece of New England’s defense for the foreseeable future, it would behoove the Patriots to lock him up before he hits free agency next offseason.

Fellow 2020 draftees Mike Onwenu and Josh Uche also are up for extensions. Onwenu has been a high-caliber lineman throughout his Patriots tenure and emerged as one of the best guards in football this season. Uche was slower to develop, but he broke out last October, piling up 11 1/2 sacks over the final 10 games to give Judon a productive pass-rush partner.

3. Will Jabrill Peppers re-sign? He’s not as prominent a name as McCourty, but Peppers was a good player in his first season with the Patriots, routinely dishing out Richter-scale hits on defense and special teams. His PFF run defense grade was the seventh-best of any NFL safety.

Peppers was a luxury piece — teams don’t really need four established safeties on their roster — but he helped add another layer of unpredictability and physicality to the Patriots’ defense. If he’s fine with his role as a depth player and open to an affordable contract, he’d be worth keeping around.

More positional outlooks: quarterbacks | running backs | receivers | cornerbacks | defensive line | tight ends | linebackers | offensive line | special teams