Bruins Vs. Panthers Playoff Preview: Analysis, Predictions, X-Factors

The stage is set and the Boston Bruins will take on the Florida Panthers in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The Bruins clinched the Atlantic Division in March and made the No. 1 seed theirs just a few weeks later. They only found out their opponent Thursday, but they have had success against them in the regular season.

The Panthers, meanwhile, clinched the second wild-card spot in the final game of the regular season after a 6-4 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes.

Boston is mentally prepared to go into the playoffs. The B’s set new NHL and franchise records all season, and head coach Jim Montgomery said his team having something to play for helped them stay prepared for the road ahead.

With the No. 1 seed, the Bruins have home-ice advantage. So, they haven’t needed to go far since returning home from Montreal after their final game of the regular season.

Here’s everything you need to know about Bruins-Panthers.

STATS HEAD-TO-HEAD (REGULAR SEASON)
Goals/Game: Boston 3.67 (2nd) | 3.51 (6th)
Goals Allowed/Game: Boston 2.12 (1st) | 3.32 (21st)
Power Play: Boston 22.2 (12th) | 22.8 (10th)
Penalty Kill: Boston 87.3 (1st) | 76.0 (23rd)

SEASON SERIES
— Boston won the season series 2-1-1
Oct. 17: Bruins 5-3
Nov.. 23: Panthers 5-2
Dec.. 19: Bruins 7-3
Jan. 28: Panthers 5-4 OT

HOW THEY GOT HERE
— Florida earned the second wild-card spot
— Bruins claimed the No. 1 seed

SCHEDULE
Game 1 — Monday, April 17 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Game 2 — Wednesday, April 19 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Game 3 — Friday, April 21 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Game 4 — Sunday, April 23 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Game 5 (if necessary) — Wednesday, April 26 at TBD
Game 6 (if necessary) — Friday, April 28, at TBD
Game 7 (if necessary) — Sunday, April 30 at TBD

FORWARDS
Bruins Projected Lines
Brad Marchand–Patrice Bergeron–Jake DeBrusk
Pavel Zacha–David Krejci–David Pastrnak
Tyler Bertuzzi–Charlie Coyle–Trent Frederic
A.J. Greer–Tomas Nosek–Nick Foligno

Panthers Projected Lines
Carter Verhaeghe–Aleksander Barkov–Sam Reinhart
Eetu Luostarinen–Anton Lundell–Matthew Tkachuk
Ryan Lomberg–Eric Staal–Anthony Duclair
Nick Cousins–Colin White–Givani Smith

Lauren Campbell Willand: There’s no denying the Panthers can score, but the Bruins are just as, if not more deadly when it comes to offense. Boston also is incredibly deep and it likely will be healthy scratching good players throughout the series, much like we’ve seen in the second half of the season after the NHL trade deadline. I’m also operating under the impression that Nick Foligno, who was injured in February, will be ready to go for Game 1. If he’s not, then Garnet Hathaway likely will be a fourth-line forward, but it’s not going to be an easy choice for Jim Montgomery.

The Panthers caught fire in the home stretch of the season and, according to Boston Sports Info on Twitter, are the only team to score at least four goals against the Bruins twice this season.

Advantage: Bruins

Mike Cole: Florida scored at least three goals in all four of these teams’ meetings. The offense is legit. The Verhaeghe-Barkov-Reinhart combination might actually match up pretty well with the Bergeron line. There’s also a debate as to whether Tkachuk, not Pastrnak, is the most dangerous offensive player in the series. If Florida could get Anthony Duclair, who scored 30 goals last year, going, look out. The Panthers’ firepower is going to be an issue for the Bruins. Florida ranked second in scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and led the league in high-danger scoring chances.

The Bruins are probably more balanced, but — and maybe this is a hot take — don’t have the high-powered offense that could completely flip a game. The Panthers do. Whether that matters has more to do with the Bruins’ defense than anything else, but I think I have to give Florida a slight edge up front.

Advantage: Panthers

Gayle Troiani: Matthew Tkachuk is going to be a huge X-factor for the Panthers; however, the Bruins have found ways to win by getting quality and clutch scoring from all four lines. Florida has depth with Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Aleksander Barkov, but when you match them up against David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Jake DeBrusk and Patrice Bergeron, Boston will be able to shut down the offense of Florida while netting goals in the offensive zone. And if a healthy Taylor Hall gets going and is able to play in back-to-back games, look for the Bruins’ third line to dominate in all three zones.

Advantage: Bruins

DEFENSE
Bruins Projected Pairings
Matt Grzelcyk–Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm–Brandon Carlo
Derek Forbort–Connor Clifton

Panthers Projected Pairings
Gustav Forsling–Aaron Ekblad
Marc Staal–Brandon Montour
Josh Mahura–Radko Gudas

Lauren: The Bruins have been able to mix and match their pairs since the trade deadline thanks to the acquisition of Dmitry Orlov and being able to play both sides. He’s been able to provide Boston with depth and versatility and has been a seamless fit since being acquired. I’m assuming Forbort, who’s dealing with a foot injury, will be ready for Game 1 and will slot back into the lineup. Even though he’s missed a month and just recently began practicing, the last time Forbort missed a month, his return was seamless. Much like the forward group, the Bruins have depth on defense that — like we began to see at the end of the regular season — could have Montgomery rotating defensemen in and out of the lineup.

The Panthers’ defense essentially is the opposite of Boston’s, and the latter has a better chance at slowing down Florida’s offense than the Panthers do at stopping the Bruins’ offense. The Panthers certainly boast strong defensive players, but they just don’t statistically compare to the Black and Gold.

Advantage: Bruins

Mike: The Panthers’ defense corps doesn’t lack big names, but unfortunately for Florida, this series will be played in 2023. Ekblad, for all his offensive prowess, is a liability in his own zone. They lean on Marc Staal in their own end, which worked a lot better a decade ago than it does now. And Radko Gudas could technically hit someone into next week, assuming he’s able to keep the player in front of him.

The Bruins, meanwhile, have No. 1 defensemen — McAvoy and Lindholm — split between their top two pairs and have the depth to pair them with partners that give Boston a legitimately stout two top pairings. The Bruins will dominate the series if this group wins its battle with the Florida forward group.

Advantage: Bruins

Gayle: The depth the Bruins have on defense is magnified by the fact that one of their blueliners is going to be sitting up on the ninth floor watching the game instead of lacing up the skates. The addition of Dmitry Orlov gives Boston three solid pairings that have been even more effective down the stretch because the players were able to rotate in and out to get some rest. Montgomery will have the ability to mix and match each game of the series since Orlov can play both sides. And with Derek Forbort returning from injury, Montgomery will not need to rush him back into action.

The Bruins also boast the top three plus-minus skaters in the NHL, with Hampus Lindholm leading the league at plus-49. Gustav Forsling is the highest defenseman for Florida at plus-19.

Advantage: Bruins

GOALIES
Bruins Goaltenders
Linus Ullmark
Jeremy Swayman

Panthers Goaltenders
Sergei Bobrovsky
Alex Lyon

Lauren: The Bruins had the best goalie tandem in the NHL all season, with Swayman and Ullmark earning the William M. Jennings Trophy after Thursday’s finale against Canadiens. Ullmark is the runaway favorite to win the Vezina Trophy, and Swayman bounced back from a rough start to the beginning of the season. The Bruins have a very good problem between the pipes, but Lyon has emerged as the potential Game 1 starter for Florida despite it having last year’s Vezina winner in Bobrovsky on its roster. Lyon went 6-1-1 in the Panthers’ final eight games and caught a bit of fire. We’ve seen goalies get hot in the playoffs against the Bruins and Lyon very well could do that. Bobrovsky, too, but it will be no easy task going against the Bruins’ offense.

Advantage: Bruins

Mike: Bobrovsky is the most talented goaltender in the series on either side, but the fact that he basically lost his net to a 30-year-old journeyman tells you the depths of his struggles. If this was prime Bobrovsky, it might be a different story, but if the Panthers had either Ullmark or Swayman, they’d be starting this series. There’s really no other choice.

Advantage: Bruins

Gayle: The Bruins are the first team in NHL history to feature both a 40-win and 20-win goaltender in a regular season. Ullmark and Swayman have put the Black and Gold in a position to win every game and the postseason should not be any different.

The Panthers are one of two teams to beat the Bruins twice this year, but the first outing was with Spencer Knight between the pipes, and with him being out indefinitely, Boston won’t have the opportunity to exact revenge. Lyon may have gone 6-1-1 in Florida’s final eight games, but the six-year journeyman has zero playoff experience, which is something the Bruins can exploit.

Advantage: Bruins

X-FACTOR

Lauren: Tomas Nosek.

Nosek quietly has been having a successful season. He has been an effective penalty killer and has made the most of his time on the ice — particularly at the faceoff dot. The Bruins will need him to carry his regular-season performance into the playoffs and continue to bring a strong presence to the bottom six.

Mike: Derek Forbort

We haven’t seen him in a month, so it’s hard to say how he’ll look. But if he’s good to go, Forbort will be a huge addition, further lengthening the Bruins’ defensive depth, not to mention the boost he adds on the penalty kill. The latter could be especially true against a top-10 Panthers power play.

Gayle: Taylor Hall

A healthy Hall can take over a line and/or a game, and he should be running one of Boston’s power-play units, which can use an upgrade. The Bruins will need him and his linemates, Charlie Coyle and Trent Frederic or Tyler Bertuzzi, to return to the dominant third line they were prior to Hall’s injury.

PREDICTION

Lauren: Bruins in five.

The Panthers will give a good fight, but the Bruins will prove to be too much in the end.

Mike: Bruins in six.

This is going to seem more difficult than it should at times for the Bruins. Florida will, at times, be able to focus the talent that won them a Presidents’ Trophy last season and could steal a game — or two. Ultimately, though, they can’t match Boston’s depth.

Gayle: Bruins in five.

The Panthers’ offense will put up some solid numbers, but the Bruins’ depth will catapult them to the next round.