NFL Odds: Here Are Three Betting Favorites To Avoid In Week 10

Believe it or not, but it’s time to start talking about the playoff push in the NFL.

We’re already into Week 10, a slate that features a bevy of games with playoff implications, especially with an expanded postseason field for 2020.

Unsurprisingly, two divisional games are featured as we look at some betting favorites you might want to avoid this week. All lines are provided via consensus data.

(-13.5) Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Now, don’t go running to bet on the Jaguars’ money line. A Jacksonville win in Lambeau on Sunday would be the biggest upset of the 2020 NFL season. All we’re saying is, don’t be surprised if this one is closer than you think. The Packers have been favored by 13 points or more five times since 2012 and they have covered exactly zero times. That’s because Green Bay’s defense has been sketchy pretty much since then, and this season is no different. You also have to wonder about the Packers’ give-a-damn meter coming into this game after an easy revenge win in San Francisco last week and a big road game at Indianapolis looming in Week 11.

(-7) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This might seem like an overreaction to the Steelers’ rock fight in Arlington last week against the Cowboys. Yet, we probably should have seen that one coming, as Pittsburgh typically has struggled as a big favorite under Mike Tomlin. Seven points might not be the double-digit spread the Steelers saw last week, but Pittsburgh has covered just five of its last 13 games when favored by seven points or more. This Bengals team always feels like a candidate to slip in the back door with Joe Burrow at the helm. We’ve also reached the point of the season where Ben Roethlisberger struggles to walk like a normal human, and cool, damp weather in Pittsburgh on Sunday is unlikely to help much on that front.

(-2.5) Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
The Vikings are getting some buzz as a team that could contend for a playoff spot despite a slow start because of the expanded field. Sure, maybe. But Minnesota really has just one good win on its resume so far, its Week 8 win over the Packers that the Vikes almost blew. The offense has been very good, in large part because of a running attack highlighted by Dalvin Cook. A lot of that success is solely because of Cook; the Vikings actually rank 17th in team run block win rate, per ESPN. Conversely, the Bears rank 11th in win rate on the defensive side of the ball, highlighted by Khalil Mack, who has been very good against the run in 2020. Long story short, the Bears should be in the backfield against the Vikings, and that will put the pressure on Kirk Cousins, and we’re not sure he’ll be able to do much against the fourth-ranked pass defense (by DVOA).