NBA MVP Odds: Damian Lillard, Kawhi Leonard Among Best Bets With Most Value
Will someone unseat two-time defending winner Giannis Antetokounmpo?
The odds to win the 2020-21 NBA MVP Award feature a few expected frontrunners but also a pair of names — Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry — basketball enthusiasts might not have expected.
No disrespect to the Dallas Mavericks star, but Doncic unseating two-time defending MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo as the favorite at +400 was a little surprising. Antetokounmpo, though, isn’t far behind with +450 odds of his own.
And with regards to Curry, isn’t it a surprise to see the Golden State Warriors All-NBA guard listed at 8-to-1 — ahead of Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James — despite missing the majority of last season due to injury?
Anyway, here’s a list of 20 players who possess the best prices to win the NBA MVP Award, per consensus data:
Luka Doncic +400
Giannis Antetokounmpo +450
Stephen Curry +800
Anthony Davis +900
LeBron James +900
Kevin Durant +1200
Damian Lillard +1600
Jayson Tatum +1600
James Harden +2000
Nikola Jokic +2200
Kawhi Leonard +2500
Devin Booker +3000
Jimmy Butler +4000
Joel Embiid +4000
Russell Westbrook +4000
Trae Young +6000
Paul George +8000
Kyrie Irving +8000
Donovan Mitchell +8000
Zion Williamson +8000
And here are some players we believe present the best value:
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers’ five-time All-NBA guard has appeared on the MVP ballot in four of the last five years and is coming off a season in which he finished eighth in the voting. Lillard has finished as high as fourth in the voting, which he did following the 2017-18 season. The difference this year, though, is the team he has around him.
Lillard averaged 30 points and eight assists last season, both of which were career highs. Portland, however, finished as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference with a modest 35-39 record. It’s tough to vote for an MVP if his team doesn’t finish above .500. This year’s Blazers team is different. Portland could be a legitimate NBA Finals contender, and that would boost Lillard’s individual stock exponentially.
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
Admittedly, this might be a little bit more of a stretch, as we’re not all that confident in the Clippers. LA underachieved mightily last season, being eliminated in the Western Conference semifinals, and might have taken a step back this offseason. Meanwhile, the defending champion Lakers have improved. It will be a tough road in the talented Pacific division.
That said, we can’t look past Leonard getting 25-to-1 odds. Leonard remains one of the best two-way players in the league and is coming off a season in which he finished fifth in MVP voting behind Antetokounmpo, James, Harden and Doncic. Leonard has finished in the top-five three times and in the top-10 five times. His best-ever finish was when he took second in 2015-16 behind Curry.
Leonard is coming off a season in which he averaged career highs in points (27.1) and assists (4.9) during his first campaign with the Clippers. While having a teammate like star Paul George might hurt his MVP case, the 29-year old still is in the prime of his career and presents good value.
