NFL Week 17 Picks: Odds, Analysis And Predictions For Every Game
Might it be better to flip a coin this week?
Well, here goes nothing.
Week 17 in the NFL is here, and none of us have any clue what will happen. Sure, there are playoff races to be settled, but the final week of the season can be as unpredictable as Week 1 or even a preseason game. Some teams are checked out for the year, while others are resting starters for the playoffs. And often times, we won’t know who’s in and who’s out until kickoff Sunday.
Oy vey.
That won’t stop NESN.com’s Mike Cole, Ricky Doyle and Andre Khatchaturian from making their against-the-spread picks, though.
But first, here’s how they fared last week.
Mike Cole: 7-8-1 (111-121-6 overall)
Ricky Doyle: 10-5-1 (116-116-6)
Andre Khatchaturian: 7-8-1 (109-123-6)
And here are their Week 17 picks.
SUNDAY, JAN. 3
Miami Dolphins at (-1) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. It’s going to be cold, and it might snow, but give me the team from Southern Florida. The Bills really don’t have much to play for, while the Dolphins can get in with a win. Almost seems too simple.
Ricky: Bills. It kinda feels like the Dolphins are playing with fire when it comes to their quarterback situation. The Bills, meanwhile, have a full head of steam. Gonna fade the must-win team here.
Andre: Bills. Still not sold on the Dolphins, who rank 26th in yards per play differential. Buffalo is eighth in that category. The Bills have a lot to play for — that No. 2 seed could mean an additional home game or two in the playoffs.
(-11.5) Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. Baltimore just beats the hell out of bad teams.
Ricky: Ravens. Said after Baltimore’s dramatic Week 14 win over Cleveland that the Ravens would build momentum before the playoffs by feasting on terrible opponents down the stretch. So far, so good.
Andre: Ravens. Baltimore has a lot to play for and the battle in the trenches heavily favors Baltimore. No team blitzes more than the Ravens and the Bengals have allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL. Cincinnati also allows nearly five yards per carry and they’ll struggle against the Ravens’ run-heavy attack.
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-10) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. The Steelers have absolutely no reason to win this game, while the Browns are so close to the playoffs they can taste it. Assuming this game is even played, Cleveland should roll.
Ricky: Browns. Even Cleveland can’t screw this up, right? The Browns’ playoff hopes are on the line, while the Steelers — with nothing to play for ahead of the postseason — will be resting starters. More importantly, however, there’s not a huge gap between these teams to begin with, and Cleveland should have no problem taking care of business at home by leaning on its ground game and keeping Pittsburgh’s pass rush at bay.
Andre: Steelers. Pittsburgh ranked 31st in yards per pass attempt with Ben Roethlisberger. His absence really won’t impact this game much and the Steelers will be competitive in this game, especially with the No. 2 seed on the line.
(-7) Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. Gonna look like an arena league game, so give me the better quarterback going up against a pass defense that ranks last in dropback success rate against and 29th in explosive pass rate allowed over its three-game losing streak.
Ricky: Lions. The Lions are more accustomed to psyching themselves up for meaningless games. That counts for something, I suppose.
Andre: Vikings. No Dalvin Cook, but Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah are capable backs and will be able to run the ball against a Lions rush defense that ranks 30th in expected points contributed.
New York Jets at (-3) New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jets. Given how these two teams have played recently, the only reason to lay the points with the Patriots right now is how much Bill Belichick hates the Jets. But New England has a bunch of injuries, especially on defense, and the Jets have a pretty large advantage at quarterback.
Ricky: Patriots. Losing this game would leave Belichick with a bad taste in his mouth that’ll last all offseason. Maybe Jarrett Stidham comes in and does something positive?
Andre: Jets. The Jets have allowed the fewest yards per carry since Week 9. Not good news for the Patriots, who are extremely reliant on their running game.
(-3) Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. The more I think about it, the worse I feel about believing in the Giants. The Cowboys’ clear talent advantage should win out here.
Ricky: Cowboys. I have zero faith whatsoever in the Giants’ offense, which is averaging 8.7 points per game amid New York’s three-game losing streak.
Andre: Cowboys. Daniel Jones is banged up and won’t be as mobile as a healthy Daniel Jones. Andy Dalton has seven touchdowns and just one pick over the last three games. He’s settling into his role with Dallas and the Cowboys have more offensive threats than the G-men.
Atlanta Falcons at (-6.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. Tampa Bay kinda has some motivation here. They get the fifth seed with a win, which means a potentially advantageous game against the NFC East winner. But we’re just two weeks from Atlanta jumping out to an early lead on Tampa, and if they do the same this week, you have to think the Bucs will just coast to the end.
Ricky: Falcons. All four losses during Atlanta’s four-game losing streak have been by five points or fewer. Against really good competition, too. The Falcons have played hard under Raheem Morris, and this marks the final game of his head coaching “audition.” They might be even more motivated than the Bucs.
Andre: Bucs. Tampa not only has a chance to win the fifth seed, but a date with the NFC East champion in the first round. That’s essentially a bye week. The Falcons have allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL. Should be a blowout.
(-6.5) New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. Matt Rhule will have his team ready to play the role of spoiler, and Teddy Bridgewater gets a chance to stick it to his old team. Don’t be fooled by last week’s performance: New Orleans’ offense and defense have been league average for the last month or so.
Ricky: Saints. Typically love the Panthers in an underdog role, but they’re dealing with some key injuries that could prevent them from doing much offensively. Solid opportunity here for the Saints to fine-tune a few things before the playoffs.
Andre: Panthers. Eight of Carolina’s ten losses were decided by one possession. They’re a feisty team and will keep this one close.
(-5.5) Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Packers. I’ve been all over the Bears the last few weeks for how good the offense has looked, but that’s been against literally the worst defenses in football (Houston, Detroit, Jacksonville). Green Bay’s defense won’t be confused with the Steel Curtain, but they’re better than people realize, and the Packers are also playing for the No. 1 seed and the conference’s only bye.
Ricky: Bears. Green Bay might be the NFL’s best team, and spoiler alert: I like the Packers to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LV. But they occasionally play down to inferior competition. Thus, I’ll take the points and bank on David Montgomery’s late-season surge continuing, with Chicago ultimately losing in gut-wrenching fashion.
Andre: Packers. Green Bay is 18-3 against Chicago since the start of the 2011 calendar year. The Packers are the more complete team, ranking fifth in yards per play differential. Chicago ranks 21st in the category.
(-2.5) Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Raiders. The Broncos’ secondary is still a mess, right? Derek Carr and Co. pad the stats here before hitting the links.
Ricky: Raiders. Can we just throw the Raiders, Broncos and Chargers into one triple-threat match and be done with it? There’s nothing I hate more than picking these second-tier AFC West games each week.
Andre: Broncos. I’ll take the home team getting points. The Raiders have lost five of their last six with their only win coming against the lowly Jets.
(-7.5) Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Titans. Tennessee needs the win, Houston can’t stop the run, and Deshaun Watson is dinged up. Almost seems too simple.
Ricky: Texans. Sure, Tennessee needs the win. But Houston wants the win, too, probably even more so after J.J. Watt called out the team’s effort last week. Plus, it’d be a nice little sendoff as Romeo Crennel’s tenure as the Texans’ interim head coach comes to a close.
Andre: Titans. Houston allows five yards per carry and it’s going up against Derrick Henry. Good luck.
Jacksonville Jaguars at (-14) Indianapolis Colts, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. The Colts have injuries on both lines to very good players (Anthony Castonzo, DeForest Buckner), and the Jags can cut it loose this week after “securing” the No. 1 pick.
Ricky: Jaguars. If we’ve learned anything from Philip Rivers-led teams over the past 17 years, it’s that this probably will be more complicated than it needs to be.
Andre: Jaguars. Jacksonville’s only win this season came against the Colts. Maybe they keep this one close?
(-3.5) Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. Pass defense has been a sneaky issue for KC the last few weeks. LA oughta let Justin Herbert throw it all over the yard and try to secure the greatest QB rookie season of all time against the Chiefs’ second-stringers.
Ricky: Chargers. No team has less to play for this week than the Chiefs. And it feels like they’ve already been messing around this season in games that did matter. So, who the heck knows?
Andre: Chiefs. The Chiefs are 14-1 because they’re a deep, complete team. Meaning their backups are likely going to be able to perform well enough to help an experienced guy like Chad Henne cover a 3.5 point spread at home.
Arizona Cardinals at (-1.5) Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Rams. If both quarterbacks are hurt and/or hobbled, which coach do you trust more? It’s gotta be Sean McVay, who is a much better coach than Kliff Kingsbury and should be more able to scheme up his players in a tough spot.
Ricky: Rams. I’m more concerned about the Cardinals’ ability to function with a hobbled Kyler Murray than I am about the Rams’ ability to function with John Wolford under center. Because for Los Angeles, this game never was about the quarterback. As long as Wolford doesn’t hand Arizona the football, the Rams should be able to lean on their elite defense and ride their rushing attack against a Cardinals run defense that ranks 31st, per Pro Football Focus. Keep in mind: the Cardinals just surrendered 227 rushing yards to the 49ers (7.6 yards per carry), who beat Arizona with a third-string quarterback (C.J. Beathard).
Andre: Cardinals. Kyler Murray said he’ll play despite being banged up and I’ll take a banged-up Murray over John Wolford.
(-5.5) Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. Seattle’s defense has been quietly very good in the second half of the season, and the 49ers’ offense has been ravaged by injuries. The Seahawks jump out early and sit on the lead while cruising in this stinker.
Ricky: Seahawks. Seattle’s much-improved defense — ranked No. 1 against the run, per Pro Football Focus — will offer more resistance against San Francisco’s ground game than Arizona did last week.
Andre: 49ers. San Francisco showed a lot of fight against the Cardinals last week and their defense is strong enough to mitigate the Seahawks’ offensive attack.
(-1.5) Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Football Team. Completely narrative-driven, but Alex Smith plays and plays well against a horrendous Philly offense, capping a wonderful comeback story as Washington wins the division in the season’s final game. If Smith can’t play, boy do I look dumb.
Ricky: Eagles. Too many concerns about Washington’s ability to push the ball downfield, especially with the availabilities of Smith and top wide receiver Terry McLaurin unclear. One could argue the Eagles have nothing to play for, sure, but their QB and head coach certainly do looking ahead to next season.
Andre: Eagles. Jalen Hurts should have a big game on the ground. Washington allows the ninth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. The Eagles’ rush attack is probably the most explosive offensive entity in this game. The team averages 5.1 yards per carry and are now even more apt to run with Hurts at quarterback. They’ll utilize the run, eat clock and break Washington’s hearts at home.
