NFL Week 11 Best Player Prop Bets

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November 20, 2021

Player props are a terrific way to get into the NFL action, and Week 11 is full of prime spots to capitalize on individual player performance. With several games with shootout potential and likely high-scoring affairs, a couple of players may exceed expectations.

 

Look below and check out a few props to target this week.

 

All NFL Betting Lines, Odds, and Prop Bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals

The Bet: Over 270.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Week 11 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders looks appealing for the Cincinnati Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow. The Raiders rank 23rd in pass DVOA, coming off a 41-14 loss to the high-powered Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10, allowing 422 passing yards. With Burrow under center, the Bengals prefer a pass-first offense, calling a 59%/41% pass-to-run ratio and look to involve wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as their big-play receivers. Chase leads the receiving corps with 25% of the Bengals targets and averages 11.44 yards per target. With Cincinnati currently a  1-point favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook, Burrow may need to rely on the passing game to seal the win. With a 68% completion rate, Burrow has also shown his efficiency in completing passes, which should lend toward having a stellar outing.

Dating back to last season, Burrow has reached the 271-passing yard threshold 10 times. Our models project Burrow for 271.89 passing yards against a weak Raiders defense, slightly trending him toward the over.

 

Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints

The Bet: Over 60+ Rushing Yards (-158)

New acquired New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram looks to remain in the lead back role in a Week 11 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles with Alvin Kamara ruled out Friday with a lingering knee injury.

In a Week 10 23-21 loss to the Tennessee Titans, Ingram was 66% of the Saints carries, rushing for 47 yards on 14 attempts with one touchdown. The matchup with the Eagles looks to be ideal, with Philadelphia ranking 20th in rush DVOA. Look for Ingram to play a significant role in the Saints’ offense, potentially seeing more volume in the backfield. We’re projecting Ingram to rush 19 times against the Eagles, despite being a 2.5-point road underdog on FanDuel Sportsbook. This season, the Saints have preferred a more balanced approach to their play-calling, using a 53%/47% pass-to-run play calling ratio.

Dating back to last season, Ingram has reached the 60-rushing yard mark in two games, both of which were starting roles for the veteran running back.

Ingram projects for 80.36 rushing yards against the Eagles, trending him toward the over in an ideal matchup against a defense struggling to stop the run.

 

Darren Waller  â€“ Las Vegas Raiders

The Bet: Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

 

Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller remains the go-to option in the receiving corps for quarterback Derek Carr, responsible for 23% of the target share, which leads the team. In seven of the eight games Waller has played, he has been targeted at least seven times, including a 19 and 11-target outing against the Ravens and Giants. The Raiders are one of the more pass-heavy teams in the league, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run ratio and look to be in a prime matchup, facing a Cincinnati Bengals defense ranked 21st in pass DVOA. As 1-point home underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook, look for Carr to likely increase the passing cadence to seal the game for the Raiders, signaling an uptick in volume for Waller.

 

Dating back to last season, Waller has reached the 72-receiving yard mark in 10 games, seeing seven or more targets in nine of those matchups.

 

We’re projecting Waller for 72.81 receiving yards, slightly trending him toward the over in an ideal matchup against a Cincinnati defense that has a tough time stopping the passing game.

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