NFL Week 11 Picks: Vikings Challenge Packers; Cowboys Make Statement In KC?
Can underdogs keep up this ridiculous run?
The dogs keep barking 10 weeks into the 2021 NFL season.
Week 11 is upon us, and it honestly wouldn't be the worst idea to just blindly take the points across the board. After a 9-5 against-the-spread showing in Week 10, 'dogs are 87-62-1 ATS for the entire season.
Not only that, there once again was a handful of outright wins by teams getting points, with San Francisco, Washington, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Miami all getting W's. Oh, and the Lions tied the Steelers, because of course.
Can we expect similar dog days in Week 11? NESN.com's Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle will try to navigate those unpredictable waters with their weekly ATS picks for each and every game. Before getting to those, though, here's how they fared last week.
And here are their Week 11 picks with betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
THURSDAY, NOV. 17
(-6.5) New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons, 8:20 p.m. ET
Mike: Patriots. Do I think the Patriots could beat the Falcons 20-13? Of course. That's all it takes in this spot, so I'll be a square, whatever.
Ricky: Falcons. The first short week of Mac Jones' NFL career. Familiarity on the Falcons' coaching staff, with former New England defensive coordinator Dean Pees now serving in that role for Atlanta. A classic trap spot, with the Patriots coming off a blowout win over the Browns and a crucial AFC showdown with the Titans looming in Week 12. Plus, the number jumped rather considerably, with the Falcons getting torched by the Cowboys in Week 10. Take the points.
SUNDAY, NOV. 21
Detroit Lions at (-11) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Lions. It might be Tim Boyle, not Jared Goff, under center for Detroit. And while very few people have heard of Boyle, it should be readily apparent he's not Goff -- so he's got that going for him. Baker Mayfield also is all kinds of banged up; this one feels like a rockfight.
Ricky: Browns. I don't know what to expect from Cleveland, which is dealing with various injuries on top of getting demolished last week by New England. But I really don't know what to expect from Boyle, a 27-year-old undrafted QB possibly making his first career NFL start after being sidelined since Detroit's final preseason game with a broken thumb. Nick Chubb's return -- assuming he clears COVID protocols -- should be enough for the Browns' offense to recapture a little mojo versus a soft opponent.
(-6) San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. Check this out: Jacksonville has a top-10 defense (by EPA per play) since Week 8 with a top-five run defense. It's a sneaky bad matchup for San Francisco, which is in a major letdown spot on a short week coming off an emotional divisional upset win at home.
Ricky: 49ers. Not sure San Francisco is about to make a playoff push, but the Niners seemed to regain their identity Monday night against the Rams. And that identity -- physical, run-centric, opportunistic -- tends to travel well, whereas Jacksonville still has too many offensive flaws.
Indianapolis Colts at (-7) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills. Buffalo's run defense has proved stout, and if it can bottle up Jonathan Taylor -- who is responsible for more than a third of Indy's offense -- the Bills should be able to pin their ears back and get after Carson Wentz. Questions about the Colts' secondary also linger against Josh Allen here.
Ricky: Bills. The Colts have won four of their last five games. Which is nice, until you realize they've beaten the Dolphins (Jacoby Brissett), Texans (Davis Mills), 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo) and Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence) -- four teams with a combined 12-34 SU record -- in that stretch.
(-3.5) Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. Joe Flacco is starting for the Jets, which is worth a hearty chuckle. On the other side, Tua Tagovaloia has a passer rating above 100 when kept clean, and New York has generated little to no pressure this season.
Ricky: Dolphins. Miami's defense is showing signs of life, allowing just 4.6 yards per play over its last three games, the fourth-best mark in the NFL during that stretch. A date with the Jets should prolong the success another week.
Washington Football Team at (-3) Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Football Team. One thing I overlooked because of stupid ATS trends was a Ron Rivera-Bruce Arians coaching matchup. Not making the same mistake this week with two similarly matched teams, especially when I'm getting points against the squad starting Cam Newton with a little more than a week of prep in a new system.
Ricky: Football Team. Hope everyone enjoyed the Cam Newton fun while it lasted. Because moving forward, there's no way the reality matches the hype.
(-5) Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. Get-right spot for Baltimore, which has had extra time to stew over an ugly loss to the lowly Dolphins. The Ravens are still "good," and Chicago hasn't really shown an ability to beat a halfway decent team.
Ricky: Ravens. Any sort of rest advantage the Bears might have thanks to their bye week is mitigated, to an extent, by the Ravens playing last Thursday night and thereby having extra down time of their own. And with that being the case, I'll lean heavily toward the team that's better coached.
New Orleans Saints at (-2) Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m.
Mike: Saints. The Eagles' path to success is paved by the running game, and New Orleans' run defense might be its biggest strength. Not to mention: The Saints have a pretty decided head coaching advantage with Sean Payton over Nick Sirianni.
Ricky: Saints. New Orleans' defense ranks first in rush success rate against and first in explosive run rate against. Which is to say Jalen Hurts will need to throw the football -- probably in some unpleasant third-down situations -- and we saw how that worked out earlier this season before Philadelphia's offense started going run-heavy.
Houston Texans at (-10) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans. Life is too short to search for ways that Houston can make this a close game.
Ricky: Texans. Life is too short to not take risks.
(-1) Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Scheduled loss for the Packers? Green Bay is banged up on both sides of the ball, and the offense has been shaky, especially with Aaron Rodgers under duress. Minnesota can generate a pass rush, too, so this just feels like a frustrating divisional game for the Packers.
Ricky: Vikings. Love the spot -- a must-win game, at home, catching points, in a divisional matchup -- and believe Minnesota's offense might have turned a corner with regards to its playcalling. The Vikings have been more aggressive of late, getting the ball into the hands of their skill players, and that'll prove effective against a Packers defense dealing with injury issues on the edge.
(-1) Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Bengals. This was basically a coin flip. These teams are impossible to figure out, but I'm just gonna bank on Ja'Marr Chase going nuts.
Ricky: Bengals. Both teams are trending in the wrong direction. Yet it doesn't feel like the Bengals are at risk of becoming completely unglued like the Raiders. Another late-season collapse appears to be in full swing for Vegas.
(-2) Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. Assuming Russell Wilson got some sleep this week, Seattle should look considerably sharper than it did in his rushed return last week at Green Bay. Arizona, meanwhile, either starts a potentially hobbled Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy with a pectoral injury.
Ricky: Seahawks. OK with backing the Seahawks here -- at home and getting points -- regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Cardinals. Seattle's defense has held its own of late, and Wilson has built up enough cachet over the years to think he'll rebound.
Dallas Cowboys at (-2.5) Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. The numbers say the Chiefs' defense might be coming around, but they haven't faced an offense like Dallas' recently -- or all season, really. Stops will be hard to come by for KC, and I'm not ready to completely buy back in on the offense, especially to keep pace with Dallas.
Ricky: Cowboys. Is Dallas' defense better? Yes. Is Dallas' offense better. Yes. And I'm getting points? OK. This a statement game for both teams, and I'm not ready to overreact to Kansas City's Week 10 win over Vegas, which said as much about the Raiders as it did about the Chiefs.
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-5.5) Los Angeles Chargers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. Seemingly everyone has COVID, so it's hard to get a true read on this game. But I do think Pittsburgh's ground attack, led by Najee Harris, gives the Steelers a chance to not just keep this close but win outright against a struggling LA team.
Ricky: Steelers. The Chargers' defense ranks dead-last in rush DVOA, which, to Mike's point, should allow Harris to gain traction on the ground and keep the ball out of Justin Herbert's hands. The Steelers will ugly this game up enough to keep it within the number.
MONDAY, NOV. 22
New York Giants at (-11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Giants. Something is clearly broken in Tampa Bay, as it sounds like there's a rift between the quarterback and coach. Maybe they get it fixed and go on a deep run, but give me the points here, especially given the Bucs' past primetime problems.
Ricky: Bucs. A lot of reasons to back the Giants here. They've proven pesky at times, they're getting healthier and they have a solid track record of covering on the road under Daniel Jones. Plus, as Mike mentioned, the Bucs have some problems. But I just can't shake the feeling of Tom Brady and Co. throwing cold water on the supposed Tampa Bay turmoil by beating up on an inferior opponent.
