Sunday’s are generally reserved for football, but we have a busy six-game NHL schedule to look forward to today, with five of those games starting at 7 pm ET or later. Last night’s schedule didn’t disappoint, with eight games going over their respective totals and three games getting sorted out in overtime. Keep an eye on those trends as teams conclude a busy week in the Chell.
These are the wagers we’re looking at from FanDuel Sportsbook!
The Pittsburgh Penguins will get a much-needed boost when they travel to take on the Washington Capitals. Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin, and head coach Mike Sullivan are expected to rejoin the Pens for their Sunday contest against Alex Ovechkin and the Caps. All three team members were in the NHL’s COVID-19 protocol and unable to participate in team activities over the past couple of weeks.
The Pens have remained competitive despite COVID-19 impacting their roster over the past few weeks. Pittsburgh has the fourth-best expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five, posting a game score below 49.1% just once since October 23. Those metrics are likely to improve now that the Penguins are back to full health.
From an advanced metrics perspective, Washington hasn’t had the same type of success. At five-on-five, the Caps have posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in four straight games. Washington is 3-1-0 over that span despite the metrics working against them, creating an unsustainable imbalance that will result in fewer wins. That regression will likely be facilitated by an offensive well that runs dry, as the Caps’ 48 goals this season is well above the 37.6 expected value.
It’s progression versus regression tonight as the Penguins look to get back to their winning ways with a healthy lineup. Conversely, the Caps are winning more than their metrics imply and are due for regression as their offense continues to operate above expected. That creates an edge in backing the Penguins as moderately-priced underdogs.
The Picks: Penguins +116
