NHL Betting Guide for Wednesday, November 24

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It was a chalky Tuesday night in the NHL, with all three favorites winnings and covering the puckline. That continued the early-week trend that has seen seven of nine moneyline chalk win outright. We are diving headfirst into a bustling 14-game Wednesday docket. It’s a front-loaded schedule with eight games starting at 7:30 pm ET or earlier, but there’s also something for the after-hours crowd, with four games scheduled to begin at 10 pm ET or later.

These are the wagers we’re looking at from FanDuel Sportsbook!

The Washington Capitals sit second in the Metropolitan Division with only three regulation losses through their first 19 games. However, the Caps have overachieved relative to their production metrics, leaving them at risk of slipping up against the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday night.

There are several indicators that the Caps are headed towards a correction phase. The Caps have the 11th-ranked expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five but the fourth-best actual goals-for rating and the fifth-best points percentage. Their efforts have resulted in the second-highest PDO in the league, with inflated shooting and save percentages.

That disconnect between production and output is highlighted over their recent stretch, as the Caps have been outplayed in six of their past nine. Despite that, Washington has won five of those games, which is another red flag that they are due for regression.

The Habs are on the opposite end of the PDO spectrum, sitting with the fifth-worst mark in the league. Their shooting percentage is dragging them down, as the Habs have the third-worst rating in the league. Montreal forwards are due for increased output, and the snowball should start rolling.

Montreal gets a boost with Jake Allen returning to the crease tonight, and he should help the Habs win consecutive games for the first time this season. This line will likely continue to shift in the Caps favor, so you may get a better price by waiting, but we’re backing the Habs.

The Picks: Canadiens +176

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
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