Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Trends, and Picks

These teams entered with big expectations this season, but they have not lived up to them. The Ravens lost to the slumping Steelers last week, dropping them to 8-4 on the year. That’s still good enough for first place in the division – and the No. 3 seed in the AFC – but the advanced metrics suggest they’re much worse than their record indicates. They rank just 16th in Football Outsiders DVOA, and they own a Pythagorean Win Expectation of just 6.6-5.4.

The Ravens also have some incredibly fortunate wins on their resume. They beat the Lions thanks to a 66-yard field goal from Justin Tucker as time expired. They overcame a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit vs. the Colts. If not for those two improbable wins, the perception of the Ravens would be a lot different.

Meanwhile, the Browns’ offense has been a massive disappointment of late. They exploded for 41 points in Week 9 vs. the Bengals, but other than that, they’ve scored 17 points or fewer in each of their past six games. Their defense is good enough that they’ve still won three of those contests, but you’re going to need more production offensively to beat a team like the Ravens.

Hopefully, they were able to get things sorted out during their bye week. At a minimum, it should have allowed quarterback Baker Mayfield to get a bit healthier.

If their offense can take even a mini step forward, I think they’re the right side in this matchup. They’re a better team than the Ravens in terms of DVOA, so getting them laying less than a field goal is a good number.

All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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