Broncos vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football Preview, Picks and Betting Guide


Denver Broncos (6-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Date: Sunday, December 5, 2021
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline, Total and Odds

All NFL Betting Lines, Odds, and Prop Bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Moneyline: Broncos +320|Chiefs -405
Spread: Broncos +9.5 (-114)|Chiefs -9.5 (-106)
Total: 47 Over (-110) Under (-110)
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: Broncos +10000|Chiefs +700

Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions and Picks

  • Under 47
  • Broncos +9.5
  • Patrick Mahomes over 17.5 rushing yards
  • Patrick Mahomes under 25.5 completions

Broncos vs. Chiefs News, Analysis, and Picks

The Kansas City Chiefs will be well-rested when they host the Denver Broncos for Sunday Night Football in Week 13. Kansas City had the benefit of the bye over Thanksgiving weekend, giving them plenty of time to plan for a Broncos squad that has looked out of sorts on offense this season. Another raucous home crowd should help the Chiefs carry the momentum of their four-game winning streak into Week 14.

You wouldn’t expect it, but the Chiefs’ recent hot streak has been predicated on defense instead of offense. KC is allowing an average of 11.8 points per game and hasn’t allowed more than 301 yards in any contest. That has led to some low-scoring games, as the Chiefs have stayed under the total in three of their four wins and is part of a more significant trend that has seen the Chiefs remain under in five of their past six.

That’s a brand of football that the Broncos can get behind. Denver has a top 10 ranked total defense, allowing the third-fewest points in the NFL. That is reflected in their recent outcomes, as the Broncos have stayed under the total in five straight games. We like those trends to continue on Sunday night and are taking this game to stay under 47.

Teams have been running the ball against the Broncos with some success this season, and that’s clearly illustrated over their recent sample. Denver has allowed 102 or more rushing yards in six of their past eight, with teams putting up 147 or more yards in three of those games. Quarterbacks are giving the Broncos D fits over the past couple of weeks, rushing for 89 combined yards. The Broncos have let opposing signal-callers break off runs in big chunks, giving up a quarterback rush of at least nine yards in four straight games. We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes how mobile Patrick Mahomes can be, and like the over on his 17.5 rushing yards proposition.

The Chiefs’ pass game has been less effective during their win streak. After completing 65.7% of his passes through the team’s first seven games, Patrick Mahomes has completed more than 62.2% of his passes just once over his past four games. That hasn’t stopped the Chiefs from throwing the ball, though, as they’ve attempted no fewer than 37 passes in four straight games, averaging 43.0 during that span. FanDuel Sportsbook has an implied 69.9% completion total for Mahomes tonight, but we like him to stay under 25.5 completions.

If we’re expecting this to be the intra-divisional defensive battle, that will make it hard for the Chiefs to pull away. Denver has been effective at covering the spread over their recent sample, covering the number in three of their past four. That’s the opposite of what we’ve seen from the Chiefs this season, as they are 4-7 against the spread this season, covering -6.5 or better just once in four tries. We’ll take the +9.5 points with the Broncos tonight.

All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
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