Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

The Sportsgrid NBA Betting Model is feeling the Heat in this one. According to the model, Miami has a 91.14 percent chance of winning, a fair moneyline of -1029, and an expected margin of victory of 15.8 points. Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the Heat are a -164 on the moneyline and -3.5 on the spread. The model thinks this will be a more lopsided game for Miami than the oddsmakers have it.

The Heat are fourth in the Eastern Conference and are riding a four-game win streak. Miami just finished a four-game homestand, and its game with Houston will kick off a six-game road trip. The road trek would’ve started on Wednesday, but their game against the Spurs had to be postponed when Miami couldn’t meet the minimum amount of required players.

The Heat are dealing with several players being out due to health and safety protocols, including  Gabe Vincent, P.J. Tucker, Max Strus, Udonis Haslem, Zylan Cheatham, Marcus Garrett, and Duncan Robinson. Kyle Lowry was just activated and could play in Houston.

In addition, Dewayne Dedmon is also out for at least another week with an MCL sprain, and Jimmy Butler is day-to-day with an ankle injury. Butler leads the Heat in scoring, averaging 22.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 5.7 assists, and is expected to play on Friday. Tyler Herro isn’t too far behind him, putting up 20.6 points a night. Miami recently signed Kyle Guy and Aric Holman to ten-day contracts using the COVID-19 hardship allowance.

Houston is last in the Western Conference and trying to buck a five-game losing skid. The Rockets are dealing with their own COVID-19 related absences. The team is missing D.J. Augustin, Garrison Mathews, Jae’Sean Tate, Kenyon Martin, and DeJon Jarreau. Christian Wood leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.3 points a game, 10.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists.

Miami averages 107.4 points per game, which is good for 18th overall, while the Rockets are right behind them in 19th with 107. The big difference is on defense. The Heat rank third in the league, limiting opponents to 103.4 points per game, while Houston is second-last, giving up 114.8 points a game.

Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the total is set at 217, but the model predicts this game will be closer to 218.3.

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
Sign up for Fanduel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000