NBA Betting Guide for Friday, December 10: A Shooter's Night in Toronto
We successfully faded the sharps on Thursday night and backed the Utah Jazz to win outright on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers. On Friday night, I’m targeting a total that’s offering some value based on my projections. Pack your bags because we’re heading across the border to Toronto, where the Raptors will host the New York Knicks.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
The New York Knicks don’t look very much like a Tom Thibodeau-coached team of late. The total’s gone over in each of their past five games, and it’s also gone over in each of its previous four games following one in which they allowed their opponents to score at least 100 points. Both trends are in play on Friday night, yet the total seems short at just 208.
Defensively, both teams rank in the league’s bottom half in terms of efficiency. New York’s 23rd in allowing 107.4 points per 100 possessions, and if we judge them based on their past three games, that number’s ballooned up to 119.5 points. It’s worth noting that it’s the third-worst mark in the league during that stretch. As for the Raptors, they’re ranked 17th in allowing 106.1 points per 100 possessions.
If we assess the Knicks offensively, they’re 14th in efficiency as they’re scoring 106.4 points per 100 possessions. Over their past three games, they’re ranked seventh with 111.9 points per 100 possessions. While it’s been a struggle for the Raptors to score points, the Knicks seem like the perfect opponent to solve their scoring woes. The reality is we’ve yet to see the same level of commitment on defense with this Knicks team compared to the previous one when they finished third in defensive efficiency.
I’m not sure it’ll be that easy for New York to flip the switch as I’ll have to see it over several games to believe it.
There’s no question that the team’s structure is a bit different based on their 2021 acquisitions. New York’s attempting, on average, six more three-pointers per game this season compared to the previous one. The Knicks also rank sixth with 13.2 three-point field goals per game.
Lastly, the total’s gone over in 11 of the past 16 head-to-head meetings in Toronto. By all accounts, this number seems a bit low in this spot, so I’ll risk a half-unit and play this one over the total.
Pick: Knicks-Raptors over 208 (risking a 1/2 unit)
