NBA Betting Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings

On Monday night, we got a bit of a bad beat with the under in the Grizzlies-Suns game. Things started according to plan as both teams combined to score just 49 points in the first quarter. And although they scored 59 points in the second quarter, the under was still well within reach. Unfortunately, a 63-point total in the fourth quarter sunk any chance of us cashing a ticket as under bettors. Hopefully, we’ll have better luck on Tuesday.

One game, in particular, stands out to me as there’s a home team that seems overvalued as a favorite. Let’s head to Sacramento, where the Kings will welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder.

When I saw this matchup, I first wondered how are the Kings, at 13-21, a six-point favorite to anyone? Sacramento is not a team that’s had a lot of experience, let alone success, as a favorite. The Kings have just three wins in their past ten games, and they come into this contest on a three-game losing streak. In contrast, Oklahoma City’s won four of its past five and covered the spread in six straight games. Moreover, Oklahoma City’s covered in eight of its past ten games.

I’ve been impressed with the Thunder rookie Josh Giddey. The Australian native has a knack for filling up the stat sheet as he’s averaging 10.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.1 assists. He still manages to contribute even when he struggles to score points. For example, in Sunday’s game against New Orleans, Giddey was 0-for-8 from the field but still had a double-double with ten rebounds and ten assists.

Offensively, Sacramento’s shown to be the better side throughout the season as they rank 21st in efficiency with 105.3 points per 100 possessions. However, that number’s down to a league-worst 94.3 points per 100 possessions over its past three games. If we turn to the Thunder, they rank 29th with 98.7 points per 100 possessions, but the team’s been much better with 104.2 points per 100 possessions over a three-game span.

You can tell Oklahoma City’s competing on a nightly basis, given the effort it puts forth defensively. The Thunder is ranked 16th in defensive efficiency, while Sacramento ranks 27th.

Oklahoma City has all the qualities you want to see in an underdog and is probably a bit undervalued due to inexperience. They have a collection of players that work their socks off defensively and compete. That’s a big reason why Oklahoma City has the third-best against the spread record at 21-11.

This point spread seems a bit high with the Thunder catching six points. I’m not sure what I’m missing in this handicap, so I’ll lower my risk to a half-unit and back the road underdogs.

Pick: Thunder +6 (risking a 1/2 unit)

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.