The Sportsgrid NBA Betting Model has a case of the San Antonios. According to the model, the Spurs have a 52.08 percent chance of winning, a fair moneyline of -109, and an expected margin of victory of 0.6 points. Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, San Antonio is +230 on the moneyline and +7 on the spread. Alright, so the margin of victory is razor-thin, but the model thinks there is value with the Spurs.
Utah is third in the league, with a 23-9 record. The Jazz have won three straight and 11 of their previous 13, including their previous game over the Mavericks. Donovan Mitchell led the way, picking up 33 points, three steals, and three assists. This season, Mitchell is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 25.4 points, five assists, and 3.8 rebounds. Unfortunately, in Utah’s win over Dallas, Mitchell strained his back. He’ll be out two games, including tonight’s contest against San Antonio.
Meanwhile, the Spurs are in 20th and have strung together three straight wins but are 6-5 over their past 11 games. San Antonio blew out the Pistons 144-109 in its previous game. Keldon Johnson had a team-high 27 points and added five rebounds to the cause. Johnson is second in team scoring, averaging 15.4 points and 6.6 rebounds a night. Dejounte Murray is the team leader with 17.8 points, 8.8 assists, 8.4 rebounds, and two steals a game but is in health and safety protocols.
The Jazz are the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 116 points a game, but the Spurs aren’t far behind in third with 111.8. The big difference is on defense, where Utah restricts its opponents to 105.7 points a game, which is seventh overall. Whereas San Antonio allows 109.8, putting them 23rd. The Jazz’s prowess at both ends of the court is the reason they’re second overall in point differential with a +10.2.
Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the total is set at 229.5, but the model predicts this game will be closer to 223.
When healthy, Utah is one of the best teams in the league, but a Jazz team without Mitchell is not as good. The model likes the value we’re getting with the Spurs and even thinks they’ll edge out the Jazz. San Antonio gets the model’s five-star treatment on the moneyline and spread. The under is also getting some love, being rated at four stars.
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid
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