Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

The Miami Heat will try to make it five straight wins when they take on the Philadelphia 76ers, who are on a hot streak as well, winning nine of their past 11 games. This contest is the second game of a back-to-back for both teams.

Miami has been on a tear at home and is looking for its eighth straight win at FTX Arena. The Heat are second in the Eastern Conference and are 8-2 over their past ten games. They’re coming off a 124-118 win over the Hawks. It was the second game of a home-and-home with Atlanta in which Miami took both games. Tyler Herro had a share of the game-high, with 24 points. The favorite for Sixth Man of the Year, Herro has been great for the Heat this season. He sits second on the team in scoring, averaging 20.8 points a game, five rebounds, and 4.1 assists. The game also saw the return of Jimmy Butler, who had missed three games prior due to an ankle injury. Butler leads the team in scoring, putting up 23.2 a night, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. Miami is still missing Bam Adebayo, who is out due to a thumb injury.

Meanwhile, the 76ers are fifth in the East and are 15-8 on the road. Philadelphia is coming off a 111-99 win over the Celtics. Joel Embiid has a game-high 25 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists. It was the first time since December 23 that Embiid was held to fewer than 31 points. Just before his game against Boston, Embiid had a span of eight games where he was averaging 32.62 points per game. It’s no surprise that Embiid leads the Sixers in scoring, averaging 27.1 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. He’s also contributing 1.4 blocks and 1.1 steals a night.

The Heat are 14th in NBA scoring, averaging 109 points a game, while the 76ers are 21st with 107.3. On the other side of the ball, Miami limits teams to 104.2 points, while Philly allows 105.5. Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the total is set at 211, but the model thinks their combined points will be closer to 217.

Against the spread, the Sixers are 20-20-1 and 13-9-1 on the road, while the Heat are 25-17 and 10-7 at home. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its past five games and 8-2 in its past ten playing on no days rest. However, in its past four road games, Philly is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.

In their previous meeting this season, Miami won 101-96, despite being without Butler, Adebayo and Herro.

The SportsGrid NBA Betting Model expects the Heat to take it to the 76ers in this matchup. According to the model, Miami has a 69.62 percent chance of winning, a fair Moneyline of -229, and an expected margin of victory of 6 points. Compare that to Fanduel Sportsbook, which has the Heat at -134 on the Moneyline and -2 on the spread.

The model recommends Miami on the Moneyline and spread, giving them five and four-star ratings, respectively. It’s also predicting the game will exceed the 211 point total and gives that wager a four-star rating.