San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys NFC Wild Card Preview, Picks, and Betting Guide

Both teams enter hot, as the 49ers have won four of their past five games while the Cowboys have won five of six since an overtime loss to the Raiders on Thanksgiving.

No one is counting this 49ers team out. Rallying from a two-score halftime deficit last week to ultimately pull off an overtime win over the Rams to secure the No.6 seed, San Francisco is led by one of the best coaches in the NFL in Kyle Shanahan. It’ll be fascinating to see how he counteracts his former coworker Dan Quinn’s aggressive blitzing scheme while the 49ers are on offense.

Jimmy Garoppolo has been battling through a torn ligament in his thumb. He led the comeback a week ago, capped by a 43-yard touchdown strike to Deebo Samuel, but it’s fair to question whether he’ll be at 100% for this matchup. Dan Quinn has turned this defense into a force, as the Cowboys rank top-5 in most major statistics. We might see some interceptions if Micah Parsons and company can bring the heat on a hobbled Garoppolo. In takeaways, Dallas ranks first in the league, and Trevon Diggs’s 11 interceptions are the most by any player in the past 40 years.

We expect a big day for Dak Prescott and this Cowboys’ passing offense. Although the 49ers rank within the top-5 in success rate defensively, they’ve still proven vulnerable to good passing attacks this season. Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray both averaged over 10 yards per attempt against this secondary, so we believe that one of the league’s best passing attacks will be able to find some holes. Cedric Wilson filled in admirably in the regular-season finale, and dangerous targets such as CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz should find room to roam. The 49ers have allowed the tenth most yards to opposing wide receivers but have been tougher against opposing tight ends. For that reason, we like CeeDee Lamb Over 56.5 receiving yards and Amari Cooper Over 57.5 receiving yards.

Elijah Mitchell has seen plenty of volume as San Francisco’s lead back, finishing with over 20 carries in each of his previous five games. The efficiency hasn’t always been there, but he has a great chance to do some damage against a Dallas rushing defense that’s allowed over 100 yards in 11 of its past 12 games. We lean his way to the Over, but his rushing yards prop looks pretty sharp at 79.5, so we’ll lay off.

Overall, we believe there’s value to be had with the Cowboys. The 49ers are understandably one of the most popular underdogs of Wild Card weekend, as they’re running hot and have one of the best head coaches in the game.

That being said, Dallas has simply been the better team this season and is certainly the rightful favorite at home. This team is talented enough to win more than one game in the playoffs, even though they have a tough draw to make that happen. The 49ers feasted on opposition like Seattle, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Houston to reach the playoffs while needing overtime to edge past the Rams and Bengals. It’s difficult to lay over a field goal in what appears to be a reasonably close matchup, but we believe it’s worth laying the points with the Cowboys as long as this remains at -3. We’ll trust the better team playing at home to come away with the victory and grab the Cowboys -3.

All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid

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