Today's NBA Best Bet: Hornets Pace Could Lead To An Over In Sunday's Matinee vs. Clippers

by

January 30

We took the day off on Saturday but did cash our Friday night best bet with the Pacers money line on the road against the Thunder. That moves our winning streak to three games, and we’ll try to keep it going with a play on Sunday afternoon. Let’s head to the Queen City, where the Hornets take on the Clippers.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Charlotte Hornets  Moneyline, Total and Odds

Moneyline: Clippers +200 | Hornets -245

Spread: Clippers +6 (-110) | Hornets -6 (-110)

Total: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)

NBA Championship Odds: Clippers +3600| Hornets +12000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Charlotte Hornets, News, Analysis and Picks

The total in Charlotte intrigues me as it’s currently up 225 after opening at 221. The Clippers are 3-0-1 to the over in their past four games. As for the Hornets, they’re 26-23-1 to the over this season despite often having the highest total on the board each night.

The Hornets rank second in the league in terms of pace with 104.6 possessions per game. And if we look at their offensive efficiency metrics, Charlotte ranks fourth with 109.9 points per 100 possessions. Thus, not only do the Hornets play fast, but they’re also able to put the ball in the cup. When you combine that with the Clippers brief run to the over, you can understand why the total is getting bet up in this spot.

However, the one thing that worries me a bit about the over is that this game is set to tip-off at 1:00 p.m. ET. NBA teams sometimes can be prone to slow starts in early afternoon games. Nonetheless, I think Charlotte’s pace still gives over bettors a chance. For one, the Hornets do a great job of getting out on the break as they also ranked second with 16 fastbreak points per game. Conversely, the Clippers’ defense ranks in the bottom half (22nd), allowing 12.9 fastbreak points per game.

Between their fastbreak opportunities and perimeter shooting, the Hornets do an excellent job of getting teams to play at their pace. Charlotte ranks sixth with 38.2 three-point attempts per game and fifth with 14.1 three-point field goals per game.

I’m a bit disappointed I didn’t get the best of the number, but I still think the over is worth a sniff. I’ll buy the total down to 224.5 at -128 odds and risk a half-unit of my bankroll on the over.

Pick: Half-unit on over 224.5 (-128)

All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.

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