NBA Most Improved Player Award Futures Odds Update: Free Money On Ja Morant At -420
With roughly six weeks left in the NBA season, the race for the Most Improved Player (MIP) award appears to be all but over. Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant is the odds-on-favorite at -420. Generally, this award offers plenty of value because it’s open to more players. For example, many players can win the prize, whereas others, such as Rookie of the Year (ROY) and Most Valuable Player (MVP), tend to have a more restricted list. Only first-year players can win the ROY, and perhaps there are roughly 15 to 20 elite NBA players each year who have a legitimate chance to win MVP.
The MIP award describes a player who has shown the most progress, year-over-year, during the regular season. According to Clint Alexander of Upside Hoops, since the 2010-’11 season, the winner has an average age of 23.6 years, roughly 3.8 years of experience in the NBA, a scoring increase of 7.2 points, and an increase in playing time by 5.8 minutes per game. The difficulty in projecting which player will stand out of such a large group helps create both value and volatility in this market.
To identify whether any value remains, we’ll examine if any other candidates still have a chance to win the award based on the principles outlined in Alexander’s research.
FanDuel Sportsbook Top Six Odds
- Ja Morant +3000 to -420
- Darius Garland +2000 to +1000
- Miles Bridges +15000 to +1000
- Dejounte Murray +5000 to +1400
- Anfernee Simons OTB to +3000
- Desmond Bane OTB to +6500
Ja Morant -420
We last looked at this futures market in January, and at the time, Ja Morant was available at -130. Now, Morant appears to be the undisputed front runner, with his odds swelling to -420. The Murray State product ticks most of the boxes as he’s 22 years of age, in his third year in the league, and he’s increased his scoring from 19.1 to 26.8 points. The only thing Morant’s missing, according to Alexander’s metrics, is that his playing time barely increased to 33.2 minutes per game from 32.6 in the previous season. If I had a vote, it would be for Morant as the MVP. However, NBA voters are unlikely to take such a leap, with more seasoned veterans challenging to win the prestigious award. The thinking could be that the MIP award would be a natural stepping stone for Morant before he eventually wins an MVP later in his career.
Miles Bridges +1000
According to Alexander’s findings, Miles Bridges probably fits the mold of a MIP better than any contender on this list. Not only is Bridges 23 years old, but he’s increased his scoring average from 12.7 to 20.0 per game. His playing time has also increased from 29.3 to 36.3 minutes per game. However, the one downfall for Bridges is that at times, his play hasn’t been good enough to uplift a Hornets team that’s two games below .500 at 29-31.
Darius Garland +1000
Like Morant, Darius Garland is 22 years old and in his third season. However, he hasn’t had as much increase in scoring and minutes. Garland does deserve some praise for his efforts, as the Cavaliers are without a backcourt starter in Collin Sexton. The Tennessee native was always a quality player since the Cavaliers selected him fifth overall in 2019. While his 20.3 points per game are impressive, Morant’s scoring average of 26.8 points will likely grab most of the headlines.
Dejounte Murray +1400
It’s a shame that we can’t recognize more than one player as the MIP because Spurs point guard Dejounte Murray is well-deserving of some praise. While Murray is having a tremendous season averaging 19.9 points, 9.3 assists, and 8.3 rebounds, he fails to meet any criteria outlined in our opening. At 25 years of age, the former Washington product is in his fifth season with San Antonio. Compared to his previous season, his scoring’s improved by only four points, and he’s averaging roughly 2.5 more minutes per game (34.4).
Anfernee Simons +3000
Anfernee Simons is a player that should have some value when you consider that he’s 22 years old and in his fourth season in the league. The Florida native is averaging 17 points per game, up from 7.8 points. Simons’ minutes (29.3) are also up after averaging 17.3 per game in the previous season. However, his 15.90 Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is much lower than Morant, who has a 25.13 PER. While this might not be Simons’s award to win this season, he might be a player to keep an eye on next year.
Desmond Bane +6500
Considering that Morant is his teammate, it’s somewhat tough to consider Desmond Bane for this award. Morant is likely to take some votes away from Bane based on his numbers. Bane does tick most of the boxes as he’s 23 years old, increased his scoring average from 9.2 to 17.9 points, and his playing time is also up from 22.3 to 30.2 minutes per game. In most years, the TCU product would likely have shorter odds. However, given the attention that Morant commands at the moment, Bane seems firmly on the outside looking in.
Conclusion
If I had to pick an upset, I would go with Miles Bridges at +1000. However, Charlotte’s win-loss record will likely impact his chances. There’s often somewhat of a hierarchy in the NBA when it comes to winning championships and individual awards. I think voters will make Morant wait a little longer before he can claim an MVP award. Thus, it’s even more likely that voters will try to appease Morant by gifting him the MIP prize. If you follow that reasoning, then laying the juice with Morant at -420 doesn’t appear to be too bad after all.
All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
