Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Philadelphia 76ers: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

The Oklahoma City Thunder have dropped three in a row ruining their three-game winning streak. The Philadelphia 76ers are fresh off their acquisition of James Harden, but he’s been sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Oklahoma City is second-last in the Western Conference, 3-7 over their past ten, and they’re coming off a 117-98 loss to the Toronto Raptors. Theo Maledon and Aleksej Pokusevski each had a team-high 18 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team in scoring, but an ankle injury will keep him out until the All-star break. Luguentz Dort leads in his stead, averaging 17 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists.

Meanwhile, the 76ers are fifth in the Eastern Conference and 6-4 over their past ten, but are coming off a 114-109 loss to the Suns. Joel Embiid had a team-high 34 points and has been on fire in February, averaging 32 points a game. He leads the Sixers, averaging 29.4 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. Philly just acquired Harden in a trade involving Ben Simmons, Andre Drummond, Seth Curry, but he’s not expected to be in the lineup Friday night.

The Thunder are last in the NBA in scoring at a mere 100.9 points a game, while the 76ers are 20th with 107.8. Philly is seventh in opponent scoring, allowing only 105.8 points per game, while Oklahoma City is 12th with 107.6. Over at Fanduel Sportsbook, the total is set at 206.5, but the model thinks their combined points will be closer to 220.3.

Against the spread, the Thunder are 32-19-3 and 17-10 on the road, while the Sixers are 26-27-1 and 10-16 at home. One trend to watch is OKC is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games against teams with a winning home record.

The SportsGrid NBA Betting Model likes Oklahoma City’s value in this matchup. According to the model, the Thunder have a 32.28 percent chance of winning, a fair moneyline of +210, and a -5.4 expected point margin. Compare that to Fanduel Sportsbook, which has the Thunder at +610 on the moneyline and +12 on the spread.

The model recommends Oklahoma City’s moneyline and spread, giving both wagers a five-star rating. The model also predicts this game to exceed 206.5 and suggests the over as a five-star bet.