Today's NBA Best Bet: Target The Over In Chris Paul's Scoring Prop
We suffered a brutal beat in the NBA last night as our play on the under in the Thunder-Mavericks game never had a chance once the contest went into overtime. What makes the loss even more frustrating was that I briefly considered playing the Thunder as an outright dog. Yet somehow, I ended up with a play on the total.
As difficult as that might be to swallow, our only option is to go back to the drawing board and try to get back in the win column. We’ll head to Atlanta for our best bet on Thursday, where the Hawks will host the Suns.
Phoenix Suns vs. Atlanta Hawks, Moneyline, Total and Odds
Moneyline: Suns +610 | Hawks -900
Spread: Suns +12 (-110) | Hawks -12 (-110)
Total: Over 205.5 (-108) | Under 205.5 (-112)
NBA Championship Odds: Suns +50000 | Hawks +4200
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000.
Phoenix Suns vs. Atlanta Hawks, News, Analysis, and Picks
The Phoenix Suns are in the midst of an 11-game winning streak as they look to build on their league-best record at 41-9. After a magical run to the NBA Finals in 2021, I’m not sure too many people fancied their chances to be back on top of the NBA this season. The Suns kept the nucleus of their team together by locking up veteran point guard Chris Paul to a four-year $120 million deal. Paul might be the most underrated player of his era when you consider his plus-minus on a team’s record from when he arrives to when he leaves. His ability to elevate the play of those around him is a big part of why the Suns seem to continue to fly under the radar.
While Suns shooting guard Devin Booker may get plenty of attention as the team’s scoring leader with 25.4 points per game, Paul’s 21.25 Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is higher than Booker’s (20.08). Yet, while Paul is only averaging 14.9 points per game, he’s been well above that average in each of his past seven games as he’s averaging 21 points per contest during that stretch. I think this is the brilliance of Paul as a point guard in that he deferred to his teammates to start the season to help build up their confidence and get them going in the right direction. As a result, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see Paul continue to look for his shot down the stretch as we near the other side of the All-Star Break.
Paul averaged 16.4 points per game last season, and he’s never averaged lower than 15.6 points per game in his career. If we project an uptick in his scoring production, now’s the time to take advantage by playing the over in his points prop, which is set at 15.5.
With a little bit of juice at -112 odds, I think the over is the right side in this spot.
Pick: Chris Paul over 15.5 points (-112)
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
