The PGA Tour stays in the Lone Star State for the Valero Texas Open this weekend, a tournament that will serve as the appetizer for next week’s Masters.
While the Texas Open will be overshadowed to an extent by Masters anticipation — especially with the Tiger Woods speculation running wild — it’s still an important week for plenty of players. For some players, it’s their last chance to get that coveted invite to Augusta National Golf Club. And for others, it’s a final chance to get their games right before the biggest tournament of the year.
We’ve considered all of that and more to bring you this week’s PGA Tour quick picks for the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio.
(Betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Favorite to back: Rory McIlroy +750
Straight chalk. Obviously, you don’t get rich off betting favorites, especially at less than 10-1, but it’s a relatively weak field, and McIlroy is well-rested after skipping last week’s match play event. It’s possible he’s more focused on doing whatever he can to be ready for the Masters, but he fits the course profile. It just feels like one of those weeks.
Favorite to fade: Hideki Matsuyama +1400
Matsuyama has had a pretty nice winter/spring dating back to his win at the Sony Open. The injury concerns are too much to ignore, though. Granted, he wouldn’t risk being ready to defend his crown at the Masters if he didn’t feel healthy enough, but it’s still too risky. If the back or neck are giving him even the slightest bit of an issue, you have to imagine he either shuts it down or dials it way back and uses this week as nothing more than a tune-up for next week.
First-round leader: Patton Kizzire +5500
There’s a lot to like about Kizzire this week, who might also be worth a sprinkle at the same number to win or even a top-five wager. He finished ninth here a year ago, speaking to the notion that players who are good on approach and around the green are solid plays here with the small greens. DataGolf’s course fit tool also ranks TPC Summerlin as the most similar course on Tour, and Kizzire has both a second- and fourth-place finish at the Shriners there in Vegas. He’s also ranked in the top 10 in first-round scoring average in 14 starts this season. Also worth a look here is Matt Kuchar, who’s 65-1.
Long shot to watch: Matthew NeSmith (+10000)
Similar to Kizzire, NeSmith has the necessary skill set and also has played well both here and a place like Summerlin in the past. His 34th-place finish a year ago isn’t particularly memorable, but he did finish 14th that week in approach and was done in by a brutal week on and around the greens. The putter has been a major issue, and Kizzire has been upfront about trying to fix the issues, but he appeared to find something at Valspar where he shot a career-low 61 on Friday.
