Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 4 Betting Model Preview


May 23, 2022

Boston and Miami are set to clash for Game 4 of the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals from TD Garden with the Heat leading the series 2-1.

The Heat picked up a solid road victory in Game 3 by a score of 109-103 and will look to put the Celtics on the brink of elimination tonight. Bam Adebayo had his best game of the playoffs and dropped 31 points to go along with ten rebounds in the win, while Jaylen Brown had a game-high 40.

Robert Williams and Marcus Smart are listed as questionable tonight for the Celtics, while Jimmy Butler, P.J. Tucker, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Kyle Lowry, and Max Strus are all listed as questionable for Miami.

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics NBA Game Information

Miami Heat (10-4) | Boston Celtics (9-5)

Date: 05/23/2022 | Time: 08:30 PM

Location: Boston, Massachusetts | Venue: Td Garden

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Spread Open: Celtics -6.5 | Current: Celtics -6.5

Moneyline Open: Heat +220/ Celtics -270 | Current: Heat +220/ Celtics -270

Game Total Open: 208.5 | Current: 207.5

All NBA betting lines, odds, and props are courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds to Win NBA Championship

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Miami Heat +310

Odds to Win NBA Championship: Boston Celtics +340

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Analysis

The Heat and Celtics have now alternated wins in the best-of-seven East Finals, so Boston will look to even things up at home tonight. There’s going to be a lot to keep an eye on in the leadup to this contest, with two Celtics currently listed as questionable added to six from the Heat.

With a lot up in the air in terms of injuries, including the status of many key players, specifically on the Heat side, the Celtics might have the advantage here simply because of their health alone. The majority of those Miami players listed as questionable will probably end up playing, but it doesn’t change the fact that a lot of players in this important Game 4 won’t be at 100%. Boston actually shot more efficiently from the floor in Game 3 despite the loss, shooting 48.6%, compared to the Heat’s 46.7%.

The SportsGrid betting model agrees with what we’re inferring above, giving the Celtics a 75.57% win probability tonight at home. This number is quite high but there’s not the same type of confidence in the Celtics on the moneyline or spread, only giving them a slight lean on both of those with a 1.5-star rating on the moneyline and spread. The spread for tonight currently has the Celtics favored by seven points and that’s a large number, but with so much still up in the air, it’s one that could make even more sense as we approach game time.

The total is where we’re set to see the model’s strongest play tonight, and that’s in giving the over a five-star rating. The line for tonight is currently set at 207.5, and so far in this series, we’ve seen point totals of 225, 229, and 212, meaning the over should once again be the largest investment tonight.

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game Predictions and Picks

SG Betting Model Win Probability: Miami Heat (24.43%) vs Boston Celtics (75.57%)

SG Betting Model ML Star Rating: BOS 1.5 Stars

SG Betting Model Spread Star Rating: BOS 1.5 Stars

SG Betting Model Total Star Rating: OVER 5 Stars

Check out SportsGrid’s NBA Betting Model for our top picks on spreads, moneyline, and totals on every NBA Playoff Game!

Thumbnail photo via Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

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