MLB DFS: Twins, Guardians Top Leverage Stacks for Friday


July 29, 2022

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Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

Team stacks seeing the most leverage: Twins, Guardians

The Minnesota Twins’ team stack is in a desirable leverage spot ahead of their matchup against Blake Snell and the San Diego Padres. Snell has had an up and down year as there are some outings of excellence and some nights where he tosses a dud. He still has a sub 4.00 xERA and xFIP with strong strikeout production at a near 30% mark, so we cannot overlook his potential and given track record.

The Twins’ offense might be the most underrated unit in baseball this season and have had a solid July, ranking in the top seven in baseball in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while limiting their strikeouts. If there were an offense that you’d want to take a chance on a Snell dud performance, this is one of them. Getting them in a leverage situation minimizes the risk and leaves us with a high-upside play.

The Cleveland Guardians have turned their offense around this month, as in July, they have ranked around tenth in wOBA and wRC+, compared to the bottom ten categories during the first three months. They still do not have intimidating power numbers, but they get the bat on the ball and have the lowest strikeout rate of any team.

They’ll be up against Jeffrey Springs of the Tampa Bay Rays, who has been reliable for the club after transitioning to the starting rotation from the bullpen back in May. Springs has strong strikeout production at roughly 27% but might not be as good as advertised, as his xERA jumps to nearly 3.75 from his actual ERA of 2.50. This stack is in an affordable place with minimal ownership, so given their recent strong production and that Springs could be in for a decline, there is some value here.

Thumbnail photo via Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

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