With training camps officially reporting around the NFL, some market trends have emerged with NFL award futures.
The NFL MVP award is one of the league’s most coveted trophies, and for a good reason. There are a lot of targets that deserve consideration to dethrone Aaron Rodgers, who’ll be looking for his third straight, but he’ll be without his favorite target Davante Adams this season.
Josh Allen put together his second consecutive MVP-caliber season, and he’ll look to etch his name on the award for the first time, owning the best odds to do so at +700 on the BetMGM Sportsbook.
Even with Allen boasting the highest odds, a new member of the AFC quarterback picture is getting a lot of attention in the MVP futures market. Russell Wilson is, by all accounts, the missing piece the Denver Broncos needed at quarterback. The reason Wilson has never received an MVP vote in his career is likely due to the offensive system run in Seattle. There has frequently been a “Let Russ Cook” mentality surrounding him, but that wasn’t the case with Seattle’s run-heavy offense. With another strong ground game in Denver headlined by Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III, there’s good reason to be bearish about the prospects of him ending his MVP drought. That thought process hasn’t deterred bettors, who are backing Wilson for the award with the highest ticket and handle percentages. Wilson and Allen are the only two players with ticket percentages in doubt digits, with the new Broncos signal caller leading the pack with 18.7%. Not only is Wilson seeing nearly a fifth of the bets placed in his direction to win MVP, but he’s also closing in on that same number with the handle percentage at 17.9%, slightly ahead of Justin Herbert at 17.2%.
Wilson is a high-character player and leads by example on the football field, but he hasn’t been able to put up numbers that demonstrate he’s capable of winning the award. You can’t forget that he straight-up wins football games, but Wilson hasn’t independently done enough to put himself in the MVP picture. That might change with the skillset Wilson brings to the table, but it’s something that’s followed his NFL career.
In addition, Wilson and the Broncos will be in one of the most challenging divisions in football this season, where you can argue for the Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, or Kansas City Chiefs to capture the AFC West crown.
As they typically do, quarterbacks have drawn the most interest for the award as the most impactful position in the game. Good luck winning if you don’t have a competent quarterback in 2022. With so many good passers and athletic options present at the position in 2022, there are likely better options to garner interest than Wilson. The 33-year-old quarterback should give the Broncos’ offense a big boost, but it’s difficult to see him doing enough to warrant MVP votes.
In his first season with Denver, Wilson is the biggest liability for the book to take home the award.