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STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
TOP OPTIMAL PROBABILITY TEAM STACK: CARDINALS
The St. Louis Cardinals will be the top optimal stack on tonight’s slate as they will match up against Adrian Sampson and the Chicago Cubs. Sampson is a serviceable pitcher for a directionless Cubs club whose primary purpose is to eat up innings. His strikeout numbers aren’t great, as he has a sub-20% rate, but his ERA and FIP hover around 3.50 without much of an increase to his expected metrics. He has limited power pretty well thus far this year, but we only have a sample of about 60 innings to go off of, so we expect regression to come, given his performances in past seasons.
The Cardinals have featured baseball’s best offense this month as they are at the top of the league in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ in August. Their HardHit% and Barrel% have been in the top three during that same stretch while they’ve been sporting a sub-19% strikeout rate, which provides even more upside against a guy struggling to rack them up. They will go for nine straight wins tonight as they continue to separate themselves in the NL Central.
This stack is actually a little bit cheaper since we expected the price-makers to react to the Cardinals’ August surge by now, but as long as the expected ownership remains under control, we’ll take the slight discount. Even though this stack is projected to be the highest owned one on the slate, it is nothing absurd to the point where you should stay away from it if you are comfortable backing it.
BRAVES PEAKING AT THE RIGHT TIME
Another team peaking at the right time is the Atlanta Braves, who join the Cardinals’ team stack atop the optimal board for tonight’s slate. They’ll get to face JT Brubaker and the Pittsburgh Pirates, a formidable opponent that will have his hands full tonight. Brubaker has decent strikeout production at about 23.5%, but he has limited power well this year to compensate. His real and expected ERAs and FIPs hover around 4.00, and he already has an appearance against the Braves under his belt this season that reflects that mark. He went seven innings while allowing three earned runs which is probably what he ideally would like to repeat tonight to give his squad a fighting chance to come out with the victory.
Since that outing, the Braves have been a completely different team as they have gone 45-21 while one of baseball’s most dominant and reliable offenses has gelled together, making pitchers look silly in the process. In August, they’ve ranked in the top five in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ and have had a 24% strikeout rate which certainly isn’t ideal but not the end of the world.
Comparing both of our top stacks, the Braves and Cardinals are priced competitively, while the Cardinals see a minimal increase in optimal probability and expected ownership over the Braves. Both opposing pitchers are serviceable but nothing special, with Brubaker, probably slightly more reliable. Either stack here holds value while being affordable considering the offenses you are getting.
