We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
Team stacks seeing the most leverage: White Sox, Brewers
The Chicago White Sox team stack is shaping up to be near the top of the stack leverage board for tonight’s game against Jose Urquidy and the Houston Astros. Urquidy hasn’t been anything special in the Astros rotation, with an expected ERA and FIP hovering around 4.50. At the same time, his strikeout rate is below 19% while struggling with giving up power. Urquidy will always give up something, but he has rarely been shelled this year.
The White Sox have been underwhelming at the plate, mainly struggling to produce power. They are about league average in production categories of wOBA and wRC+, but they have the third worst ISO this year. Urquidy’s struggles with power give us upside in that category that we usually do not get with this stack. We anticipate the White Sox to be minimally owned while being reasonably priced. Taking minimal ownership with a fairly average offense, facing a pitcher who struggles with power is a low-risk, high-reward play to make.
The Milwaukee Brewers’ team stack joins the White Sox near the top of the leverage board, as they’ll see Julio Urias on the mound tonight for the Los Angeles Dodgers in opposition. Urias has had a strong season for the Dodgers with his 2.49 ERA and not much differentiation in his expected ERA. His strikeout production is what we usually expect, around 24%-25%, but he has the highest allowed HR/9 and Barrel% of his career. By no means is he a liability in those categories, but it is something to monitor.
The Brewers have been a bottom-half production offense this month while offering some power upside given their top eight ISO ranking during that same stretch. They are coming into tonight after only scoring seven runs in their most pivotal series of the season, so they need a commanding performance in response. They are reasonably priced and expected to see near minimal ownership, but backing a struggling offense against a reliable pitcher like Urias doesn’t appear as the most favorable play.