We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
TEAM STACK WITH HIGHEST OPTIMAL PROBABILITY: YANKEES
The New York Yankees take the crown as tonight’s top optimal stack as they again have us worried about them since they have dropped three straight games to the A’s and Angels. For a team of the Yankees’ caliber, that is simply unacceptable, and they know a statement win tonight would be helpful. The Yankees offense is not getting it done at the plate whatsoever, and no matter how much the media wants to hype up Aaron Judge’s 50th home run, you just can’t really mask the struggles. They have ranked in the bottom eight in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ in August, with a troublesome bottom ten strikeout rate as well.
The Angels will be trotting out Mike Mayers tonight, who has only started a single game this year but has been the Angels’ primary long reliever of late. There are outings where he eclipsed 90 pitches, so as long as he is pitching decently, we should expect him to eat up a minimum of five innings. He isn’t the best pitcher, but he shouldn’t be a gross liability, either. His expected ERA and FIP sit in the mid-4.00 range, but he struggles to give up power without having any serious strikeout upside.
The Yankees will definitely have the opportunity to regain momentum tonight, but again, we’re looking at what the Yankees can be and not what they currently are for value’s sake. We’re stuck with having to believe it when we see it with this bunch. Mike Mayers isn’t that terrible at the end of the day to give us total comfort in backing the Yankees stack. However, there is still upside available given the fair pricing compared to the slate as a whole and reasonable ownership if you feel bullish. Sometimes we might just have to trust the computer’s optimal probability!
BRAVES LOOKING TO UNLEASH
The Atlanta Braves join the Yankees near the top of the optimal board as they’ll be facing off against Jose Urena and the Colorado Rockies. Unfortunately, there is not necessarily any nice way to put this, but Jose Urena might be the worst starting pitcher in baseball. For the season, his BB% and K% are identical at 11.6%, which is horrific, while his expected ERA and FIP both sit in the mid-5.00 range. Over his past six starts of a combined 27 innings, Urena has worked a 9.33 ERA as he has walked more batters than he has struck out. Yikes! He is coming off an outing where he let up nine runs in barely over an inning of work, so we shouldn’t be holding out breath for some rebirth tonight.
This is an opportunity for the Braves to absolutely unload, which we have seen them do on many occasions this season. In August, Atlanta ranked in the top three in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ as they have also had the best Barrel% in baseball, showing they see the ball exceptionally well. We can safely say that Atlanta will get something off of Urena. It is just a matter of how much. That is precisely the kind of upside we covet. The Braves will see high ownership and an average stack price north of $5000. Usually, that would be concerning, but five of the team stacks will be priced over $5000, and sometimes, you have to pay for the upside. There is no shortage of upside here, so if you are willing to pay up for your stacks, this looks to be the play to make.