We finally have some new tape and numbers to look at as we approach betting on NFL Week 2. While it is a small sample size, we can find an edge easier in a few matchups rather than simply working off last season’s numbers and preseason looks.
Here’s a look at some plays I like in the Thursday primetime game, with a weekend prop to keep in mind when it becomes available. Check back to NESNBets.com on Friday for some more props and plays for the rest of the Week 2 slate.
Justin Herbert Over 279.5 (-104) Passing Yards
I have spent plenty of time writing and talking about my excitement for the 2022 Los Angeles Chargers. Heading into Week 2, though, I’m aware the Chiefs will be a tough task. Patrick Mahomes and crew seemed to be just fine, if not better, in their first game without Tyreek Hill. We shouldn’t overreact too much and should remember that the talent on the Cardinals’ roster doesn’t quite compare to the Chargers.
However, it is important to keep in mind that 10 different Chiefs players saw targets in Week 1, with five different players finding the end zone. With the Chiefs being bet up to -4 Thursday night (after opening at -3), the line tells us the game script will likely lead to the Chargers having to throw the ball often to keep up with the Chiefs’ pace. The absence of Chargers receiver Keenan Allen, who led the team in yards in Week 1, certainly hurts. However, he didn’t dominate the target share by any means, with seven different players on the roster seeing four targets. Last week, Herbert finished just under 280 yards against a Raiders offense that didn’t show up much, so we should see LA feature the pass even more so this week against a high-powered offense, with the weapons that are available. While Arrowhead is one of the more daunting NFL environments to play in, Herbert has played well there in his career so far. He has racked up close to 600 passing yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions in two road wins. In a push to make a statement win with back-to-back division victories, I see Herbert going over his 285.5 yards prop in Week 2.
Mecole Hardman anytime touchdown (+260)
There’s a reason Travis Kelce is the -145 favorite here, but I found value down the board with his teammate, receiver Mecole Hardman. Hardman finished last season tied with Kelce for second on the Chiefs in red-zone targets (15), behind Hill. While it’s a small sample size, Week 1 was promising, as Hardman tied for the second-most red-zone targets in the NFL, with three. Hardman is a player most people won’t think about when it comes to touchdowns because he is outshined by the big names beside him on the roster, so I love the value here.
AJ Dillon over 70.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Week 1 wasn’t the strongest of starts for Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers was visibly upset without Davante Adams, with his new receivers clearly not in sync with their quarterback. Even with 10 different players seeing at least one target, the offense still couldn’t find a rhythm and fell to the division rival Vikings. There’s no doubt AJ Dillon was the most reliable weapon on the field, having a significant role both in the passing game and run game. He led the team with 10 rushing attempts for 45 yards as well as five catches on six targets for 46 receiving yards. He soared over his Week 1 receiving yards prop, which was set at 14.5 and missed his rushing prop by the hook (45.5). He combined for 91 total yards and I’m expecting much of the same this week. Look to take the over on his combination prop in Week 2 against an inexperienced Bears defense in a new defensive scheme.